#美联储政策 The liquidity gap at the end of the year is beginning to show. The pressure in the money market of $12.6 trillion continues to rise, and bank reserves are no longer sufficient - this signal is clear enough.

The key point of the Federal Reserve's meeting this week is not whether it will take action, but how Powell will articulate the specific measures for the next steps. From the data perspective, the issue of the composition of the balance sheet after halting quantitative tightening has not been resolved, and now the high financing costs have instead become a trigger to accelerate this decision.

Market participants' expectations are clear - restoring direct purchases of securities to supplement reserves. This will have a direct impact on the flow of funds on-chain. Historical experience shows that the release of Liquidity often precedes the inflow of risk assets into traditional financial markets, including the crypto market.

It is recommended to pay attention to two signals: first, the change in wording of the Federal Reserve's statement from this week's meeting; second, the major inflow of stablecoins into whale addresses during this window period from now until the end of the year. If the expectation of reserve replenishment is confirmed, the actions of on-chain capital allocation will respond in advance.