#美联储政策 The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but the key lies in Powell's attitude. Multiple institutions unanimously expect a 25BP cut, with the focus on how he will define the policy space for 2026 - this will directly determine the direction of liquidity in the first half of next year.

The perspective of Bank of New York Mellon is worth noting: this time it is "hawkish rate cuts," indicating that the easing cycle may be nearing its end. The FOMC dot plot will reveal divisions within the committee, which is often a trigger point for market repricing. Given the uncertainties surrounding the new chairman's tenure, the divergence in policy stance will further intensify.

From an on-chain perspective, the movements of institutional funds during this window period will be quite informative. If there are significant changes in large transfers and influx into exchanges, it often precedes market sentiment reactions. It is recommended to focus on the funding dynamics of whale wallets and mainstream exchanges within 2 hours after the interest rate cut decision is announced - which usually reveals the true expectations of institutions regarding subsequent policies.

The Fed's "hawkish" stance is gradually being digested, but the market pricing is still not sufficient.