Recently, the trend of this coin is indeed quite interesting. Let's take a look at the possibilities of both rise and fall.

**Possibility of rebound (high probability 60%)**

From a technical perspective, it is currently a bit oversold and might rebound to the range of $0.738 to $0.75. Several conditions need to be met: the price must break through the SMA50 ($0.716 line), the trading volume needs to cooperate, and the repurchase plan starting on December 23 must continue injecting liquidity.

If you want to participate, you might consider entering above $0.716, setting a stop loss at $0.689, and a target at $0.75, which gives a risk-reward ratio of 2.0 times, a decent setup. From a fundamental perspective, on-chain activity is increasing, and community sentiment is relatively optimistic. There is also a short liquidation cluster of $28.9 million above $0.738, and once it breaks through, it could trigger a short squeeze and accelerate the rise.

**Risk of fall (probability 40%)**

Conversely, if it underperforms, it may fall to the liquidation cascade range of $0.644 to $0.689. The immediate selling pressure from airdrop recipients, the continuous downtrend in the daily chart, and the $5.49M long liquidation trigger at $0.689 could all become the catalyst.

There are also many risk signals: the positive funding rate is continuously rising, indicating that the bulls are over-leveraged; TVL is still flowing out, reflecting a lack of confidence; 1.47 million tokens are being unlocked every day, creating structural selling pressure. If trading volume continues to shrink and the buyback effort remains average, the sellers may have to take over.

**There are also some neutral signals**

The derivatives positions have risen by 2.85% in the past 24 hours, and volatility may increase, but the direction is still uncertain. Social sentiment looks good but is not overheated; it just lacks that extreme FOMO vibe.