Open the market to check the trends, it's a bit strange these days. Interest rate policies are still high, yet the market is defying the trend and showing red, swaying at a high level with a posture of "To da moon". It looks good on the surface, but is this trend really right?

I have been messing around in the crypto space for eight years, and I can see the problem at a glance—this is not a market reversal, but a typical chip game.

First, let's look at the fundamentals. The interest rate hike cycle means tightening global liquidity, and the cryptocurrency market, as a high-risk asset, fundamentally lacks the soil for sustained growth. The most bizarre aspect of this wave of increase is that the trading volume has consistently failed to keep up, which is known as "price increase without volume." We all know this principle: an increase without financial support is like a castle in the air; the more it rises, the harder it falls.

Let's take a look at the specific K-line patterns. BTC and ETH have seemingly broken through short-term resistance levels, but upon closer inspection, they are all long upper shadow bullish candles—this is a classic signal of "To da moon". What does it mean? The main force deliberately raises the price to offload, attracting a group of chasing retail investors to follow in, and once the chips have been distributed, they turn around and crash the market to complete the exchange. From the chip distribution chart, we can also see clues: the high-level trapped positions are still there, and the newly entered retail investors become potential "接盘侠".

To be honest, now is not the time to be greedy. I have reduced my position to below 30%, leaving only the base position and waiting for signals. I will continue to pay attention to changes in trading volume and the performance of key support levels. Once a breakout occurs, we should be cautious.