#现货比特币ETF The answer to this question at the beginning of 2025 regarding Bitcoin is somewhat surprising.

Do you remember the market in 2017, when retail investors were queuing up to buy coins – from coffee shops to barbershops, everyone was discussing blockchain? The enthusiasm back then is in stark contrast to now. Nowadays, the retail investors' dip-buying has disappeared, and the inflow of ETF funds is also slowing down; I've seen this signal too many times.

The interesting thing is that this time it's not Bitcoin that has been forgotten, but rather diverted. Gold and silver have both reached new highs this year, literally stealing roles from Bitcoin's investment portfolio. This reminds me of the years following the 2008 financial crisis, when funds would always flow towards more "traditional" safe-haven assets whenever risk appetite declined. History tends to repeat itself to some extent.

But what is worth pondering here is, after the drop sweeps away those weak-willed speculators, what remains? A group of true long-term holders. I have experienced the bear market of 2014 and the halving of 2018, and every major cleanup has filtered out such individuals. Their characteristic is that they are no longer intimidated by short-term fluctuations.

If Bitcoin can survive the risks of forced selling by institutions, once interest rate cuts arrive as expected, this asset will gradually reintegrate into the logic of traditional asset allocation—just like it has fluctuated with US stocks over the past decade. The current silence may very well be the precursor to the next cycle.