Looking at history, what position is Bitcoin in the current cycle?

Today, let's mainly talk about Bitcoin. I hold a certain proportion of stocks related to Bitcoin. What is the current price level, and what is the expected trend for the next year? We need to analyze this.
1. The cyclic nature of Bitcoin Bitcoin has a very obvious cyclicality, based on the past few instances, it is basically a 4-year cycle, very stable! As for the reasons for the cycle, there are various opinions, but the core influencing factor is the Bitcoin halving event. The Bitcoin halving is a preset and automatically triggered event in the Bitcoin network, and its core mechanism aims to control the issuance speed of Bitcoin, ensuring that its total supply remains constant at 21 million coins, thus constructing its scarcity value foundation.

The event is driven by the halving of the block reward for miners mining new Bitcoins approximately every 210,000 new blocks (about every four years).

Each occurrence of halving signifies a decrease in the rewards obtained by miners for the same level of investment, which may lead to some unprofitable miners exiting, thereby delaying the production of Bitcoin.

It can be understood that as the cost of gold mining increases and the amount of gold available for trading in the market decreases, the price will rise.

Therefore, shortly after the halving occurs, the price of Bitcoin will experience a surge. Once the price rises to a point where mining rewards are halved yet there is still profit to be made, more people will participate in mining, leading to an increase in supply, after which the price will fluctuate.

Of course, since the output of Bitcoin is virtual and does not have a mapping in the physical world, its fluctuations and cycles do not entirely follow the balance of supply and demand.

There are also factors such as liquidity, social consensus, speculative frenzy, market sentiment, and so on.

But the final result shows that, starting from the halving cycle, the price reaches its peak after 12-18 months, and then begins to correct; it takes another 12-18 months for the price to hit the bottom, and then it starts to rebound, continuing until the start of the new halving.

2. Price fluctuations during the period

The most recent halving is scheduled for April 2024, so let's take a look at what position we are currently in within the cycle.

The table above summarizes the price trends of Bitcoin over the last 4 cycles, and it can be observed that:

The price is expected to peak 12-18 months after the halving, with the peak price at least doubling compared to the price at the time of the halving.
The pullback after the peak is astonishing, reaching up to 80%.
It generally takes 13 months from the peak to the low point of the cycle rebound.

Let's take a look back at the performance of this cycle:
1) The 18th month after the halving in April 2024 (October 2025) saw a peak, with Bitcoin close to $130,000.
2) After reaching a high point, the pullback to the low point is 80,000 USD, with a pullback magnitude of 36%;
Low point lasted only 1 month

If we look at the trend of the previous cycles, the current $80,000 does not seem to be the real bottom, as the retracement is only 36%, far from reaching the retracement scale of previous cycles.

Additionally, the cycle is too short, or rather, even if $80,000 is the low point, it is not yet the turning point for the Bitcoin price rebound; the market will need at least 6-12 months to stabilize and rise.

Of course, due to the significant improvements in Bitcoin-related policies and the social environment over the past two years, there are many voices suggesting that this time might be different. If it is indeed different, what kind of market trends can we expect next?

3. Future Price Trends and Investment Strategies We will analyze this from three perspectives: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic.
Pessimistic: 80,000 is not the price bottom; the decline must be close to 60%-70%, meaning the price will drop below 50,000; moreover, from a timing perspective, it will need to stabilize and start to rise only in the second half of 2026.
Medium view: 80,000 is the price bottom, but the price will fluctuate between 80,000 and 100,000, until the second half of 2026 when it starts entering an upward channel.
Optimistic: 80,000 is the price bottom, and the correction period has significantly shortened, with an increase expected to start in the first half of 2026.

Different people have different judgments on which of the three is more inclined. Since the future is unpredictable, we can only adjust our positions based on the risks and returns we can accept under the different circumstances of the three.