#比特币流动性 What’s happening to the US dollar in 2025? The days of this currency hegemon seem to be truly changing.

Bloomberg’s US dollar spot index has fallen nearly 9% for the year — the worst annual performance since 2017. After reaching a high of 110 at the start of the year, it has been steadily declining, with a more than 10.8% drop in the first half — the worst since the same period in 1973. Even more concerning, the options market is sending warning signals: the dollar could fall even more sharply in 2026.

What’s the main culprit behind this? The Federal Reserve’s easing policies. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.50%-3.75%. The dot plot indicates there may be another 25 basis point cut in 2026. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank held steady, and the Bank of Japan cautiously raised rates — the policy divergence among the three major central banks is shrinking, and the interest rate spreads are being squeezed, reducing the attractiveness of dollar assets.

And it gets worse. The US fiscal deficit is ballooning, credit ratings have been downgraded, and global central banks are collectively dumping dollar reserves, which have fallen to their lowest level in 30 years. The foundation of dollar dominance is being chipped away, brick by brick.

Options traders are nearly at their breaking point. The one-year risk reversal for the dollar has dropped to -27 basis points — the most bearish level recorded since 2011. Speculators have started shorting the dollar en masse since October, with the euro and Australian dollar becoming the main hedges against dollar depreciation. Data from custody trusts and clearinghouses show that the premiums paid to hedge against a falling dollar have been rising — in other words, the market is really preparing for a bigger decline.

Looking ahead to 2026, institutional investment banks are sounding the alarm. More than six major banks predict the dollar index will fall another 3% by year-end. Deutsche Bank is blunt: “The long-term bull market for the dollar is coming to an end.” Even institutions like Citigroup, which are optimistic about the resilience of the US economy, recognize that the dollar’s valuation is already at a historic high. If other regions recover economically, the US’s growth advantage will naturally diminish.

At the same time, central banks are record-breaking their gold holdings, directly diverting demand away from dollar assets.

From the foreign exchange market to global asset allocation, this wave of dollar decline is already triggering chain reactions. The downturn in 2026, driven by diverging central bank policies, valuation bubbles, and the erosion of the reserve currency status, could truly reshape the global financial landscape. For crypto assets and other safe-haven investments, this window of opportunity is worth paying attention to.

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