1. Market Overview

According to the latest candlestick data, ETH's current closing price is 2977.29 USDT, reflecting recent fluctuations within the 2950-2985 USD range. Over the past 14 trading days, ETH's price has generally oscillated within a range, with volatility around 2890.0 to 3177.5 USD. Intraday amplitude has narrowed, and the market is gradually consolidating in a narrow range. In terms of trading volume, recent daily volume has significantly decreased, with the latest day’s volume at 22,536 ETH, a sharp contraction from the high tens of thousands (e.g., a maximum of 520,510 ETH), indicating reduced short-term trading activity and a cautious market sentiment. Combined with market news and analyst opinions, investors are under pressure. Reports mention that “ETH breaking below $3000 is significant,” and “locked profit ratio falling below 60%,” indicating some holders are in floating losses. Western analysts generally believe that the $3000 level faces strong resistance, and the market lacks momentum for sustained upward movement in the short term, with investor confidence remaining cautious.

2. Technical Analysis
From the daily K-line perspective, ETH has retreated from the high of 3177.5 USD, with recent lows revisiting around 2888.7 to 2940 USD, repeatedly encountering resistance at the psychological level of $3000. The highest price within 14 days was 3177.5 USD, and the lowest was 2716.04 USD. Overall volatility has converged, with recent support around 2923 to 2940 USD, and resistance concentrated in the 2980-3000 USD range. Hourly K-line data shows that within the past 48 hours, ETH has repeatedly oscillated between 2940 and 2984 USD, with a single-hour high of 2984.1 USD and a low of 2924.54 USD. Current hourly volume has increased, with sell orders intensifying within the high points of this range. Strong resistance is near 2980-2984 USD. If this level cannot be effectively broken, the price may continue to fluctuate within the range in the short term.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Some recent news items provide market guidance. “A large whale withdrew 2,218 ETH via Kraken,” and “a major address sold a total of 50,623 ETH,” both indicate that some large holders have recently chosen to sell high to arbitrage, showing clear signs of strategic manipulation. This selling pressure aligns with resistance above the candlestick chart, increasing short-term bearish sentiment. Conversely, there are positive expectations, such as “Sharplink CEO predicts ETH ecosystem TVL could grow tenfold by 2026,” reflecting that industry leaders remain optimistic about long-term on-chain application development. However, in the medium to short term, the market lacks policy-driven catalysts or positive news to break through resistance levels. No new regulations have been introduced, and the current policy environment is neutral to slightly bearish.

4. Analyst Opinions
Most analysts adopt a cautious bearish outlook. The mainstream opinions collected include:
- “Short-term short ETH around 2936, stop-loss at 2970, take profit at 2900-2800.”
- “ETH short positions in the 2935-2960 range, stop-loss at 2980, take profit at 2905-2845, flexible entry and exit.”
- “Embedded short entry: 2960-2990, take profit at 2901-2839, stop-loss at 3019.”
Analysts’ strategies mainly involve positioning short positions at high levels, with stop-losses around 2970-3019 USD. Combined with real trading data, ETH has repeatedly touched the 2970-2980 range without breaking through, confirming the analysts’ judgment of resistance levels above. Notably, some opinions mention flexible entry points and the importance of protecting profits, which can help counter potential adverse reversals during oscillations.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions
Based on the current candlestick trend and analyst consensus, ETH is expected to continue oscillating within the 2920-2980 USD range in the short term, with no clear breakout signals. If volume declines and the price falls below 2920 USD, further support at 2900-2845 USD may be tested; conversely, a strong breakout above 2980-3000 USD could challenge higher levels, though currently lacking volume and news support. Trading recommendations are as follows:
- Holders may consider reducing positions or shorting near 2970-2980 USD, with a strict stop-loss above 3019 USD.
- Light long positions can be initiated in the 2920-2940 USD range, with a defensive bottom at 2900 USD, targeting a return to 2970-2980 USD.
- Strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit orders to prevent adverse reversals.

6. Risk Warning
ETH is currently in a weak oscillating pattern, with shrinking market volume and evident strategic battles among major funds. The price has repeatedly faced resistance in the 2950-2980 USD range and quickly retraced, with rebounds unable to sustain. There is a risk of accelerated decline if support at 2900-2920 USD fails. Additionally, large whale sell-offs, lack of policy incentives, and short-term news anomalies could increase market volatility. Traders must control leverage, set stop-loss orders, and be prepared for sharp fluctuations that could lead to account losses. Overall, ETH remains in a short-term weak oscillation, facing dense resistance at 2980-3000 USD and support around 2920-2900 USD. Caution is advised; avoid blindly chasing gains or panic selling, and manage risk exposure carefully.