Lighter $LIT Chinese CT has quite a lot of disagreements

Here are some core issues:

First, $LIT launched very chaotically, secretly going live at 2 AM Eastern Time, and as a result, withdrawals immediately crashed, leaving a very bad first impression.

At launch, there was no $LIT perpetual contract, which means that the actual trading volume and price discovery are likely to be determined by platforms like Hyperliquid, rather than within Lighter's own ecosystem.

The official mention of "market-based buybacks" is a dangerous signal, essentially telling the market that the project team will intervene when they believe the token is overvalued, which is negative for long-term pricing.

Core services require staking $LIT to use, creating demand in the short term but potentially causing user resentment in the long run.

Investors account for 24%, which means that the previous $69M funding at a $1.5 billion valuation was largely a surface valuation; in reality, a significant portion of the chips were sold at prices well below the $1.5 billion valuation.

Large OTC costs are between $45-60 per unit, with a considerable portion of actual transactions happening at $75-100 per unit, indicating obvious early sell-off pressure upon launch.

Most people chose to sell everything after the airdrop went live, despite initial voices saying "the price is lower than expected, worth a small gamble."

My view: In the short term, let the market sentiment and chip structure settle, but this is not a "buy the dip" signal. If it can effectively break through $3.5 in the future and complete price discovery, maybe it can be played.

But now, those looking to buy the dip should first watch $XPL 's TGE trend.

Don't expect $LIT to replicate $HYPE 's performance.

Whether it's project structure, chip distribution, or market environment, they are completely not on the same level.