Bitcoin has been quite active these days. The price surged to the $90,900 mark, prompting many to speculate whether this signals the start of a new bull run. But before getting excited, we need to understand what this rally really means.

From a technical perspective, the $90,900 level is not unfamiliar. Back in the peak of the previous bull cycle in 2021, this was a dream zone for bulls and a defensive line for bears. Being able to reach it again at this time suggests that market sentiment is recovering, and institutional funds may be quietly positioning. However, this alone does not confirm a trend reversal— the real focus is whether the price can hold steady at the close. If the price can stabilize at this level, it could trigger a chain reaction: follow-on capital entering → on-chain activity increasing → targeting $100,000.

But don’t get carried away by a single breakout. Recently, Bitcoin’s movements have been like a roller coaster—yesterday still talking about new highs, today possibly plunging. Volume is the litmus test for the authenticity of a breakout—if the price rises but volume doesn’t follow, it’s likely that the big players are testing the waters, and retail investors may be the ones taking the bait, risking a top. This kind of "false breakout" has happened several times last year, each time catching people off guard.

Even more concerning are external variables still stirring the pot. Next week, the Federal Reserve has an important meeting, with market rumors suggesting they may maintain a hawkish stance, which means the dollar still has upside potential. As long as the dollar continues to strengthen, the crypto market will face ongoing capital outflows. In other words, Bitcoin’s rise or fall depends not only on the crypto market’s internal factors but also on external signals like US stock market openings, economic data, and Fed statements.

For participants, it’s exciting to watch, but before actually entering the market, ask yourself a few questions: Is the current volume healthy? Will the Fed’s upcoming policies reverse? How strong is your risk tolerance? After all, it’s been over three years since BTC first crossed the 90,000 mark. Three years is enough time to change many things, including market structure and risk management.

Ultimately, technical analysis can guide but cannot guarantee direction. The market always carries the risk of false breakouts and pullbacks after a breakout. The key is to find a balance between excitement and fear, and not to be led by short-term volatility.