U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Drops to 29%—What This Means for Markets

Early 2026 brings encouraging news on the fiscal front. The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has fallen sharply to 29%, marking a significant pullback from last month's 40–48% range.

What changed? Unified Republican control of both chambers has substantially reduced legislative gridlock—the kind of friction that typically triggers shutdown standoffs. With fewer veto points in the negotiation process, budget disputes that would have stalled under divided government are moving forward more smoothly.

For crypto markets and broader investors, this matters. Government shutdowns create uncertainty spikes, drain liquidity from risk assets, and often trigger safe-haven rotations. A lower shutdown risk profile means fewer political wildcards in the near term, potentially supporting a more stable macro backdrop for asset valuations.