2026-01-02 22:22:52

The S&P 500 closed at 6845.5 points in 2025, up 16% over the past 12 months. Seeing this significant rally in the US stock market, Wall Street institutions are starting to set expectations for 2026—Bank of America is more conservative with a target of 7100 points; Deutsche Bank is more optimistic, calling for 8000 points. Calculations suggest the potential upside ranges from 3.72% to 16.87%.

What does this mean? Analysts generally expect the S&P 500 to achieve four consecutive years of double-digit growth. It sounds quite attractive, but there is a cautionary point worth noting. Adam Thernquist from LPL Financial reviewed historical data: after the index has already gained over 15% in the short term, the average return in the following few years tends to be around 8%, often accompanied by several pullbacks. In other words, when gains are large, it might be time to be cautious.

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LightningLady

· 3h ago

It's the same old Wall Street rhetoric, double-digit growth again in 2026? I don't believe a word of it. They're starting to hype it up again, 8000 points? Deutsche Bank really dares to call it. This round of gains has already been fully realized, how can it continue to soar? The historical data is right there, when the market goes crazy, it's time to run, don't be greedy. The US stock market is already a bit crazy, I choose to wait and see. A 16% increase can be achieved in a year, next is just waiting for a pullback. Sounds nice, but in reality, it's just two words: accumulation and distribution. If the index rises like this, should I reduce my holdings? After a 16% increase, who would still dare to chase the high? I just want to know when the bottom will be.

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SerRugResistant

· 5h ago

It has risen so much and still wants to go higher. History has already shown that it's not sustainable. Shouldn't you reduce your position?

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WhaleWatcher

· 01-02 22:53

Up 16% and still want to keep doubling? Historical data shows that after a short-term surge, the return rate drops to 8%... I still believe in holding the position.

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OffchainOracle

· 01-02 22:47

It has risen so much and still wants to go higher. History will provide the answer. The previous cycle was also hyped up like this.

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StablecoinSkeptic

· 01-02 22:45

Are you not aware of how fast it's rising? History has already shown this, yet you're chasing the high. The question is,

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RugPullAlarm

· 01-02 22:44

After a 16% increase, you still want to see two consecutive double-digit gains? I looked at historical data, and on average, this kind of situation is followed by an 8% increase, with several major pullbacks in between. Wall Street is starting to hype again, which is called optimistic in a nice way, but frankly, it's just creating FOMO.

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GhostInTheChain

· 01-02 22:33

Ha, a 16% increase, and now someone is calling for 8000 points... This wave feels a bit shaky. It's a repeat of history; after a surge, it's probably time to run. This pace of the S&P, 8000 points? I always feel like it's a bit exaggerated. A pullback is the real shakeout; just lie back and wait. Two-digit growth for four consecutive years? Is it a dream or a real thing? Short-term gains of 16%, long-term average of 8%... I see the gap clearly. Things that rise too fast usually have a harsh correction; how is this rule so accurate? Deutsche Bank's prediction of 8000 points feels a bit over the top.

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