2026-01-02 23:22:50

Short-term fluctuations are hard to predict—market noise, sentiment swings, liquidity shocks—all of these create random price movements.

But what about the long term? That’s a different story. If your underlying logic is clear and your holding period is long enough, fundamentals will gradually emerge, cycles will repeat, and the costs of reckless trading will eventually be smoothed out over time.

This is why most people lose money by constantly messing around in the crypto market—they are betting on short-term randomness rather than waiting for long-term certainty.

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ChainProspector

· 01-04 18:03

Exactly, I'm the kind of person who gets frustrated by short-term fluctuations haha. Now I understand what "time smooths everything" really means.

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SchrodingerAirdrop

· 01-04 14:58

That's true, but to be honest, most people can't even stick to that "long-term" mindset before their mentality collapses.

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GasFeeNightmare

· 01-04 08:00

That's right, there are just too many people with itchy hands, always thinking about getting rich overnight, only to get cut and not even know what happened.

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TrustMeBro

· 01-02 23:52

That's right, but the reality is that most people simply can't sit still and have to watch the market and tinker with it every day.

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UnruggableChad

· 01-02 23:46

That's true, but how many people can really hold? Most people talk about holding long-term, but as soon as the coin drops, they get nervous and sell.

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BasementAlchemist

· 01-02 23:41

That's right, it's so simple yet so difficult. I'm the kind of person who keeps messing around, and only now do I realize it's basically gambling.

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ZKSherlock

· 01-02 23:32

actually, most people don't even understand the *information theoretic* difference between short-term noise and long-term signal... they're just chasing liquidations lol. real question tho—how confident are you that your "fundamentals" aren't just overfitted to the last bull run? asking for a friend who definitely lost money betting on that thesis.

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GateUser-addcaaf7

· 01-02 23:30

That's right, in the short term, trading based on K-line charts is just gambling. I've seen too many people lose their principal within two or three months.

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