#比特币价格预测 When I saw this set of data, my first thought was the period in January 2023. At that time, Bitcoin was hovering between $15,500 and $17,000, and the weekly RSI was also in this range, with the entire market filled with a sense of suppression. I remember many people had already given up back then, but who would have thought that over the next year or more, this cycle would see an upward trend.

The current situation is somewhat similar, yet different. Falling from $126,000 to $80,500, a 36% decline, is indeed harsh. The weekly RSI dropped directly from 64 to 35, a speed and magnitude that are rare in the past three years. The extremely oversold technical condition is evident, and the probability of a short-term rebound is indeed not low. But there is a key issue to reflect on—oversold signals have appeared many times, and rebounds have also occurred numerous times. So what usually accompanies the true bottom when it finally appears?

History tells me that extreme values in technical indicators are often a double-edged sword. They may signal a rebound or simply be a pause before a larger decline. During the downward move from 17,000 in 2023, RSI also experienced multiple touches of extreme zones. The key is not in the indicator itself but whether the fundamentals have truly turned, and whether market sentiment has really bottomed out.

In the short term, a rebound does have technical support. But if you want to truly bottom out rather than be repeatedly shaken out, you need to observe whether this rebound can break through key resistance levels and assess the market’s genuine participation. Sometimes, extreme overselling can even be a sign of a trap for the bulls.