#比特币价格走势 Looking at the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of BTC rising back to $100,000 within the year has dropped to 11%, and this signal is worth paying attention to. In comparison, the probability of reaching $95,000 is still 32%, while the chance of falling below $80,000 is 24% — market divergence is indeed widening.

From an on-chain capital flow perspective, this downward shift in probabilities usually reflects adjustments in large investors' expectations. As the one-year time window gradually narrows, market pricing often adjusts the optimistic scenarios accordingly. The current probability distribution indicates that the market is more digesting a "consolidation" rather than expecting a "one-sided breakout."

It is important to monitor the whale activity on the $80,000 support line — if large transfers frequently flow to exchanges, it may preemptively reflect downward pressure. Conversely, if cold wallets continue to increase, it indicates institutional accumulation. Recently, the key focus is whether the 24% probability of falling below $80,000 will continue to rise, as that would be an important signal of a change in direction.