Market Outlook

The most promising attempt to break through and stabilize above 90,000

If we use 90,000 as the dividing line between strength and weakness, the market fell below 90,000 after the December FOMC and has remained weak ever since.

Between December 22 and 29, the market tested 90,000 upwardly but immediately fell back, which is also the main reason why we predicted a short-term decline to test 84K or a false break below 80,500.

Currently, the market has been holding around 90,000 for a "longer period" without breaking below.

This rebound is indeed more promising in breaking through and stabilizing above 90,000, marking the start of a "mid-term bull market rebound."

The timing replicates the key points of the 2023 Spring Festival market (started on January 1).

However, it is important to note that this is different from the "full bottom rebound" that began on January 1, 2023. In 2023, the market had already been declining for a year, especially after a two-month bottom consolidation in late November to December 2022, leading to a full bottom rebound in the first year of the four-year cycle. Subsequently, Bitcoin did not test the bottom of November-December 2022 again.

Although the timing somewhat overlaps with 2023, the market cycle is very different:

1. In the four-year cycle, 2026 corresponds to 2022 or 2018, not 2023 (the first year after the bottom's full rebound).

2. The upward move at the beginning of 2023 occurred more than 13 months after the 2021 top, whereas the current (assumed) rally's top is only three months prior.

Therefore, I believe the magnitude and duration of this rebound cannot replicate the height and persistence of 2023.

This article is sponsored by #BCGAME｜@bcgame @bcgamecoin