Predictions for Toncoin (TON) in 2026: prolonged delays

The current market has few cryptocurrencies closely followed by the Russian community, and TON is one such example. One reason it might be popular among Russian investors is that the project originates from developments by Pavel Durov, a well-known figure in Russia.
Kirill Pissov, head of product development at FG "Finam," was asked by BeInCrypto's editor to give a forecast for TON in 2026. Here are the prospects that our interviewee sees for this cryptocurrency.
I have been following TON since 2022 and have seen it go from legal failures to viral hype and back to the gray area. In 2024, everything depended on Telegram and small games, but by the end of 2025, it was clear: no new products and real use cases, the project was stuck in stagnation. The question for 2026: can TON escape the role of a "potential blockchain" or will it remain tied to past achievements?
1. Toncoin Price: no momentum, I do not expect growth
From $8 to $1.5 in a year — nearly an 80% decrease. This is not a correction but a collapse. Even in a bullish market, Toncoin remains weak. The obvious reason: no real demand. Everything relies on Telegram and faith in the "future of super apps," but beyond airdrops and "tap tokens" — everything is hollow.
Forecast for 2026: sideways around $1.5–2.5. Any Toncoin altcoin season is likely to miss more than lead. Unlocking (37 million TON each month) will continue for another three years. Low inflation, but sales are real. Institutional investors have entered, but not at current prices — clearly not for HODLing.
2. Network Metrics: activity without depth
By 2026, the number of active addresses in the network will be 100–200 thousand. About 30–40 thousand new wallets are created daily, mostly influenced by previous distribution rounds. Transactions occur — 1.9 million daily, but mainly bot activity and microtransactions. Not economic activity, but traffic.
DeFi — weak. TVL remains at $300–500 million, mainly in staking. Decentralized exchanges, lending, derivatives — all in early stages. No real demand or liquidity — growth is doubtful.
3. Ecosystem: many interfaces, little content
Games, NFTs, small apps — all launched, but hardly converting into sustainable usage. Yes, Telegram has distributed millions of NFTs — as gifts and launched tgBTC, but all more like a showcase than an active economy.
Investment funds are pouring money into GameFi and DAOs, but currently only startups with no signs of growth. Everything depends on Telegram — without its push, the ecosystem will fall silent.
TON Payments, Proxy, DNS — good infrastructure. But no "killer" features for daily use, all just technological reserves, not real advantages.
4. Telegram: salvation and anchor simultaneously
Telegram is everything for TON. Wallets integrated, mini apps working, reach over a billion users. But engagement is very low. Wallets are activated by millions, but only a few use them.
The problem lies in dependency: Telegram does not have to promote TON. Any strategic change, conflicts with Apple/Google, impact on reputation — and TON will face difficulties. It is not independent — this is not a blockchain platform but an extension of the messenger.
5. Risks: time is passing
TON exists in a delayed future. It’s all "if": if Telegram integrates finance, if there are new products, if developers come, but competitors have already started. Ethereum, Solana, L2 are developing, providing tools, attracting dev teams. TON with its technology stack is inconvenient, community small, and the platform unstable.
Unlocking continues until 2028. Every month, the market receives millions of new tokens. With weak demand, this is a heavy burden.
Conclusion: TON is not dead but not alive either
The project has a chance — but not unlimited. 2026 is the year of truth or Telegram will truly integrate Toncoin into finance, payments, lending, and make it part of daily life — or the project will collapse, like dozens of other "hype" blockchains.
Toncoin will not disappear. But it also won't explode on its own. Without clear motivation from Telegram and strong user flow, TON will be pushed into sideways movement, becoming a test with a bright start and an ambiguous end.$BTC ‌$BTC ‌$BTC ‌