First, congratulations to the fans and friends who have kept up with Xiao Zhi's pace these past two days. You should all be well-fed and satisfied by now. Next, carefully observe today's Xiao Zhi notes to plan your layout.

#加密行情预测 $ETH ‌#ETH走势分析
Today is January 4, 2026. As we enter 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is in a critical period of transformation and recovery. In 2025, Ethereum experienced a decline from its highs and valuation pressure due to reduced L2 fee sharing, but with the advancement of the 2026 technical roadmap and the return of institutional funds, market sentiment is shifting from "extremely defensive" to "cautiously aggressive."
Below is your ETH market analysis report and trading suggestions:
## ETH Market Depth Analysis Report (January 2026)
1. Fundamentals: From "Scaling Pain" to "Application Year One"
* Technical Upgrades: Market focus has shifted to the Glamsterdam upgrade (expected to be implemented in the first half of 2026). This upgrade emphasizes "Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS)" and Gas fee optimization. It is seen as a key step in solving the problem of L2 revenue feedback to L1.
* Institutional Holdings: By the end of 2025, several large financial institutions (such as JPMorgan) successfully piloted tokenization (RWA) on Ethereum, boosting institutional demand for ETH as a "underlying settlement asset." Currently, the staking queue (Entry Queue) surged at the beginning of 2026, indicating large funds are flowing back.
* Macro Environment: With potential US cryptocurrency legislation in 2026, ETH ETF fund outflows have nearly dried up, and the market is waiting for new replenishment momentum.
2. Technical Analysis
* Price Range: ETH is currently oscillating around $3,000 - $3,100.
* Key Support Level: $2,850 - $2,900 (strong support, this is the 2025 bull line).
* Key Resistance Level: $3,400 (breaking this confirms a medium-term reversal); $4,000 (psychological barrier).
* Indicator Observation: Daily RSI is currently swinging between 40-50, not overbought; H4 shows a symmetrical triangle convergence pattern, facing directional choice.
## ETH Trading Entry Suggestions
Based on the current early 2026 market conditions, a phased position-building strategy focusing on breakout confirmation is recommended:
Strategy 1: Right-side trend order (conservative)
* Entry Point: Enter after confirming volume breakout above $3,150, or add positions after stabilizing above $3,400.
* Take Profit Targets: $3,650 / $4,000.
* Stop Loss Suggestion: Break below $2,980 (i.e., fall back into the symmetrical triangle).
Strategy 2: Left-side pre-position order (aggressive)
* Entry Point: Place buy orders in the $2,880 - $2,950 range.
* Take Profit Targets: $3,350 / $3,500.
* Stop Loss Suggestion: Break below $2,750.
Strategy 3: Coin-based long-term (HODLers)
* Execution Method: Gradually buy spot assets during Q1 2026, aiming for the Glamsterdam upgrade to reach the $5,000 threshold.
⚠️ Risk Reminder
* Macro Fluctuations: Be aware of potential global risk aversion triggered by Trump’s tariff policy adjustments in early 2026.
* ETF Dynamics: Keep an eye on the net inflow data of Ethereum spot ETFs; if outflows continue, expectations should be adjusted downward.
* L2 Competition: Watch for further encroachment pressure from Solana and other high-performance L1s on the Ethereum ecosystem.
> Risk Statement: Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please operate according to your own risk tolerance.