#比特币技术分析 Seeing the Federal Reserve's rate hike landing, the market's reaction and the logic behind it are worth a careful analysis. This isn't the first time we've witnessed such a milestone—whenever major macro variables settle, the market begins to truly price in them.

The unanimous vote on the decision was once seen as a dark cloud hanging over the market. But today's reaction tells us that this expectation has long been fully digested. Bitcoin surged over 2% in the short term, and more importantly, we see those long-silent major players start to speak up, especially that trader who hasn't moved in nearly a month—these are signals of a shift in momentum.

Key technical data points are in the range of $98,600 to $107,000, which is the real test zone in recent times. The $112,500 level is indeed a strong resistance, but we all know that strong resistance often becomes a new support after being broken through. The question isn't whether it can reach that level, but how complex the path will be.

This reminds me of several similar cycle nodes in history. After each critical interest rate decision, the market often goes through a period of chaos—appearing to rebound, but actually testing the psychological defenses of all parties. Confirming the true direction requires time to refine. Now is the last moment when all major negative factors are exhausted, and this judgment should be correct. But based on past experience, the easiest mistake is to go all-in immediately after "all negatives are out," ignoring the potential volatility tests that may follow.

Whether the Federal Reserve will truly expand its balance sheet is the key variable determining the subsequent trend. Japan's negative real interest rate policy is just a booster, not the engine.