#预测市场 Watching the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this year on Polymarket drop from an optimistic expectation to 11% brings a familiar feeling. I have experienced this feeling in 2017 and 2021—whenever the year-end approaches, the market begins to self-reflect, knocking down once confident targets one by one.

I remember at the end of 2021, many were confident that Bitcoin would break $100,000 in November, only to start blaming December, saying "It will definitely work next year." The current 11% actually reflects what the market is saying honestly. The probability of reaching $95,000 is 32%, and the risk of falling below $80,000 is 24%. This distribution tells me an old but eternal truth—markets are always more cautious than we imagine.

Most of the historical prediction failures are not due to misjudging the trend direction but overestimating the certainty of the time window. From the 2013 bear market, the 2015 winter, to the 2018 halving, every time someone issued ambitious declarations before the end of the year, only to be slapped in the face by reality. The reason why prediction market data is valuable is that it reflects the actual participants' chip distribution, not media expectations.

The possibility of another 10% increase within the year dropping to 11% indicates what? It shows that most people have already told the story for 2024. What is coming has come, and what needs to go has gone. Moments like these are often not despair but a re-examination of the beginning of the next cycle. History tells me that the best opportunities are often hidden in these "disappointed" moments.