#预测市场平台 Watching the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 on Polymarket drop from earlier figures to 11%, this shift is worth a deep look. It’s not just a numerical change; it’s a real reflection of market psychology.

Remember the 2017 cycle, when the extreme bullish sentiment on prediction platforms also experienced a rapid downward revision. From "definitely hitting $200,000" to "it might just be like this," all within a week or two. The beauty of prediction markets is that they anchor participants’ confidence with real money—no one would bet on something they don’t believe in.

The current situation feels familiar. The probability of $95,000 remains at 32%, while the risk of falling below $80,000 is priced at 24%—indicating the market is reassessing the fundamentals. Historically, such "high-level sentiment reversal" often signals two possibilities: either a true top confirmation or a consolidation before a breakout after a pullback.

We’ve seen similar scenarios in 2013 and 2017. The key is whether those who are actively trading are panicking out or gradually building positions. The speed of probability decline, trading volume changes, large traders’ positions—these details are the supporting points for judgment.

Looking at the past 20 years of cycles, prediction market probabilities tend to be most deceptive at critical moments. When everyone thinks "11% is too low," that’s often when caution is most needed.