Why did the US suddenly take action against #委内瑞拉 ?

What does this "quick and decisive" move mean for the market?
Web3 people's three immediate reactions:
1️⃣ First judgment — whether the market is bullish or bearish, whether to adjust positions or open new orders
2️⃣ Then a quick scan — whether there are MEMEs to pre-embed for potential opportunities
3️⃣ Finally, reflection — whether this event can be leveraged to gain some recognition gap traffic
This article focuses on one thing:
Clarifying the true logic behind the US targeting Venezuela this time, and its actual impact on the market.
┈┈➤ First layer of impact: Short-term bearish (black swan attribute)
Without discussing right or wrong, without taking a stance, war itself is a black swan.
The airstrike occurred in the afternoon Beijing time, and BTC weakened on the same day. This reaction aligns with historical experience:
👉 Risk event occurs → funds seek safety → risk assets come under pressure
There’s nothing to argue about here.
┈┈➤ Second layer of impact: Bearish, but with limited intensity
The issue with Venezuela is not "recent," but "long-term."
Over the past hundred-plus years, Venezuela has repeatedly experienced extreme inflation, which is no longer a cyclical problem but a structural failure of governance.
Whether in terms of economic size, industrial base, or military strength, Venezuela cannot compete with the US.
Therefore, this is not a prolonged tug-of-war but more of a quick and decisive event.
Market reactions also verify this:
BTC declined, but the drop was clearly controlled, with no panic selling.
┈┈➤ Third layer of impact: The ongoing influence on the market may be minimal
╰┈✦ The real question is:
Is the US after Venezuela’s crude oil?
The official statement is "drug issues,"
Venezuela’s response is—America wants oil and minerals.
Many people's first reaction is also:
👉 Venezuela = the world's largest proven oil reserves
But the issue is—
Large reserves ≠ easy to extract ≠ worth fighting and抢夺.
▌Where is the problem with Venezuelan crude oil?
① Extremely high extraction costs
Venezuelan crude is extra-heavy oil, with a viscosity close to asphalt, requiring additional heating or dilution to flow.
A rough comparison (broad ranges):

Saudi Arabia: $3–6 per barrel (almost "plug in and gush")

UAE / Iraq: $3–8 per barrel

US WTI / Shale oil: $6–15 per barrel

Venezuela: $12–25 per barrel

② Higher refining costs
Venezuelan heavy oil has a complex molecular structure, with carbon chains over 40 atoms long,
requiring high-temperature cracking, catalytic processing, or coking to produce usable refined products.
Add in high sulfur and metal impurities,
refining costs further increase, with $18–30 per barrel not being exaggerated.
③ Still very low efficiency
A lot of money spent,
but it produces a large amount of low-value by-products (petroleum coke, sulfur, etc.),
and the proportion that can be turned into high-quality fuel is not high.
If Venezuelan oil was really so profitable,
it wouldn’t have turned its currency into a historic inflation disaster despite having the world’s largest reserves.
▌Then why does the US still want to target it?
If the goal is oil—
The US would have acted long ago, with no need to risk global public opinion now.
Especially considering:
The US has stable relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Middle Eastern crude oil is cheaper, of better quality, and supply is more stable
From an economic perspective, Venezuelan crude oil is not worth it.
┈┈➤ A more reasonable explanation: Geopolitics
The core may not be about oil at all.
Venezuela has close ties with CN,
And who is the US’s primary strategic competitor today? No need for extra explanation.
This looks more like a geopolitical cleanup and pressure,
Rather than resource plundering.
╰┈✦ Final market judgment

The crude oil supply structure will not undergo substantial change

Global energy prices do not have a sustainable upward logic

The event itself is more of a one-time shock

In one sentence:
👉 For BTC and risk assets, it’s an event that "has a voice but lacks momentum."
What we should really be wary of are higher-level, longer-term geopolitical conflicts,
Not this kind of "localized friction" that has already been quickly priced in.
Black swans are frightening,
But what truly causes market bloodshed,
Is always "ongoing uncertainty."