#美联储降息预期 Recently, there has been a divergence in the voices of Federal Reserve officials. Harker mentioned that interest rates might be maintained until spring, mainly because concerns about inflation have not dissipated. This signal is actually worth our serious attention.

Many people have been expecting the benefits brought by rate cuts during this period, but I want to remind everyone that maintaining stable interest rates is precisely a test of our mindset and strategy. The uncertainty in the macro environment instead requires us to manage our positions more cautiously.

My experience is that, in this stage where policy signals are unclear, rather than frequently adjusting, it’s better to focus on reviewing your asset allocation—whether the proportions of various assets in your portfolio are reasonable and whether your risk tolerance is clear. Sometimes, "being well-prepared but not rushing to act" can better protect our long-term gains than blindly chasing opportunities.

High inflation and delayed rate cuts are all reminders of a fundamental principle: prudent investors need an understanding of long-term trends, rather than reacting to every short-term fluctuation. Before spring, it might be a good time to hold positions with peace of mind and strengthen defensive awareness.