Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, has fallen into a public controversy due to the event of Venezuelan President Maduro being detained by U.S. authorities. Before this political upheaval occurred, the platform saw three suspected insider wallets making "mysterious" bets, collectively profiting over $630,000 in a short period by betting on Maduro's removal. Among them, some newly created wallets achieved single-profit amounts exceeding $400,000, and the total betting amount on related contracts reached as high as $56.6 million. This highly targeted flow of funds has sparked strong skepticism within the community and directly prompted U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres to announce plans to push legislation aimed at banning federal officials from trading on prediction markets using non-public insider information.

Regarding such suspected insider trading activities, market observers show a clear polarization of opinions. In the logic of decentralized prediction markets, insider information is often regarded as a "feature" rather than a "bug"; it is part of the price discovery mechanism. The rapid profits of new accounts precisely reflect the market's sensitivity and efficiency. However, some critics strongly condemn this behavior, stating that accumulating positions at extremely low costs before U.S. military actions is "disgusting" and believes it seriously damages market fairness and credibility.

As the incident continues to ferment on social media, Polymarket's trading volume and discussion heat have surged temporarily. Ordinary investors should utilize on-chain monitoring tools to continuously track the movements of suspicious wallets, especially focusing on the typical pattern of "new wallets + niche market single bets." This pattern is often a clue left by insider traders. By monitoring these early-informed fund flows, it may be possible to gain some level of risk warning or follow-up opportunity in the complex and volatile prediction markets. #我的2026第一条帖