#比特币价格预测 Seeing this forecast of $86,000-$92,000, a few past memories flashed through my mind. The crazy surge at the end of 2017, the long bear market in 2018, and the recovery in 2020 — each time, analysts drew various ranges, but the market's true rhythm has always been controlled by deeper forces.

Wintermute's assessment actually reflects a very real current situation: we are in a typical year-end adjustment period. Tax considerations, portfolio rebalancing, profit-taking—these seemingly technical terms are actually driven by institutional investors doing year-end accounting. This reminds me of the plateau after the 2013 rally — it seemed stagnant but was actually building momentum for the next wave.

It's still too early to say we've bottomed out, I fully agree with that. But the oversold signals have indeed appeared, which from a historical cycle perspective is a good reference point. Range-bound oscillation itself indicates the market is consolidating, waiting for new catalysts. The options expiration in late December could be a turning point, but more importantly, I think it depends on how the macro environment evolves next year.

Anyone who has experienced several cycles knows that the greatest test of patience is never during sharp rises, but during these sideways consolidations. Many people choose to exit at this point, but in doing so, they miss the opportunities that follow.