#美联储降息预期 Seeing Hamak's words, my first reaction was that a familiar scene has replayed. The collapse of expectations for a rate cut at the end of 2022 essentially stemmed from this divergence—markets betting that the central bank would soften, only to be repeatedly slapped in the face by hawkish voices. Now, a similar tug-of-war is happening within the Federal Reserve, just with roles reversed: previously dovish members pushed for rate cuts, now hawks are steadfastly defending high interest rates.

Inflation, this beast, is more stubborn than imagined. After three rate cuts, the market cheered, but Hamak's remark that "we are more concerned about inflation than the fragility of the labor market" hit the nail on the head—this is not a decision driven by economic data, but a deep reflection on lessons learned over the past few years. Historically, whenever the central bank prematurely declares victory, it always comes at a cost.

Maintaining the expectation of stability in spring—what does that mean for those of us who have experienced multiple cycles? It means at least four or five more months of high interest rates. The crypto market has always been sensitive to this; liquidity costs won't be released immediately. The idea that a "drop" by the end of the year will usher in a new bull market now seems a bit naive.

The real turning point depends on the data—either a substantial decline in inflation or a clear deterioration in employment. Until there is a definitive conclusion on these two, policy stance will remain ambiguous. I’ve seen too many times when markets are repeatedly caught in this uncertainty, only to realize: not all bottoms can be precisely timed, and sometimes waiting itself is the best strategy.