MSTR Double Dilemma: How Q4 Losses and MSCI Risks Threaten Bitcoin's Short-Term Stability

At the beginning of 2026, the crypto market seems to have ushered in a rebound, with Bitcoin prices rising back to around $91,460. However, a hidden risk is emerging: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, stock code MSTR), which holds 670,000 Bitcoins, is facing a “double blow”—simultaneous Q4 massive losses and the risk of being delisted from the MSCI index. This is not just a company’s predicament but could also serve as a new trigger for short-term Bitcoin volatility.

The scale of losses has been determined, market divergence reflects a confidence crisis

MSTR’s predicament stems from Bitcoin’s decline in Q4. According to the latest news, Bitcoin dropped about 24% in the fourth quarter, directly erasing approximately $2.8 billion of the company’s third-quarter book gains. This means MSTR’s Q4 losses are now a certainty, with the market generally expecting losses in the tens of billions of dollars.

Looking at stock performance, MSTR declined about 48% cumulatively in 2025, with a retracement of nearly 70% from the November 2024 high. This sharp decline reflects deep concerns about the company’s fundamentals. More notably, analyst forecasts for MSTR’s full-year performance vary greatly, from a loss of $7 billion to a profit of $9.5 billion—such a wide expected range indicates a severe loss of market confidence.

Why is this loss particularly noteworthy

MSTR’s losses are not just accounting figures; they reveal a deeper risk: the sustainability of its high-leverage Bitcoin holding model. MSTR’s operational logic involves issuing new shares (ATM financing) and convertible bonds to raise funds, then heavily buying Bitcoin. This “issuing shares to buy coins” flywheel runs smoothly during Bitcoin’s rise but becomes an amplifier during declines—falling stock prices increase financing costs, further weakening the company’s ability to continue buying Bitcoin.

MSCI index delisting risk: from “positive signal” to “potential black swan”

More concerning than MSTR’s Q4 losses is an upcoming decision. According to the latest information, MSCI is considering removing MSTR from its index because its digital assets exceed 50% of total assets. MSTR’s Bitcoin holdings account for approximately 77%-81%, far exceeding this limit. MSCI is expected to announce the final decision on January 15, 2026.

This may sound like a technical index adjustment, but its potential impact should not be underestimated.

Why MSCI’s decision could amplify Bitcoin risks

MSTR is important not only because it holds a large amount of Bitcoin but also because it symbolizes Bitcoin’s entry into mainstream asset allocation. When MSTR is included in the MSCI index, the market views it as a sign of Bitcoin entering traditional assets. Conversely, being delisted would mean this recognition is withdrawn—and this could have a far greater impact on market sentiment than the digital assets themselves.

More critically, MSTR is a significant buyer of Bitcoin. If its financing ability is restricted, it will directly reduce incremental market funds. In the current environment where risk aversion still prevails, this deterioration in funding could be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back.

The short-term risk window has already opened

Entering 2026, although inflows into institutional ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT (with a single-day net inflow of $420 million) provide some market support, it is not enough to offset the potential shock from MSTR.

The current risk chain is clear:

• Q4 earnings release (timing uncertain but expected soon) may confirm losses in the tens of billions
• The final MSCI decision (January 15) may trigger passive capital outflows
• The combination of these two events could trigger market sentiment crashes, especially as Bitcoin has already retreated about 25% from its previous high

According to the latest information, since MSTR shifted fully to a Bitcoin strategy in 2020, it has experienced six consecutive months of decline for the first time, with technical indicators turning notably weaker. This suggests the market is digesting these negative factors, but the risks are not yet fully priced in.

Summary: a critical window is imminent

MSTR’s predicament essentially reflects a problem: the fragility of high-leverage Bitcoin holding models under extreme market conditions. The combination of Q4 losses and MSCI risks could create a key risk release window around mid-January.

For investors, three key dates should be watched: the Q4 earnings release, the final MSCI decision (January 15), and the actual impact of these events on market sentiment and liquidity. MSTR has become an important barometer for short-term Bitcoin risks—its every move could signal upcoming pressure on Bitcoin. During this window, market vulnerabilities are indeed worth vigilance.