Institutional capital is flowing back and demand is recovering. Why does Tom Lee insist on bullish Bitcoin to $180,000?

Bitcoin dropped from its early October high of $126,000 to $85,000, experiencing a correction lasting over two months. However, after January 2026, the market gradually showed signs of recovery. In early 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $335 million, indicating renewed institutional capital. Against this backdrop, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat Global Advisors, reiterated his bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 in the upcoming cycle. This is not just a number; it reflects a deep structural change in the market.

From Peak to Trough, and Then to Recovery

Bitcoin’s decline was not without cause. From the October high of $126,000, the subsequent correction was driven by multiple factors: increasing global financial market uncertainty, reduced institutional trading activity during year-end holidays, tax-related sell-offs, and other intertwined factors, which kept prices under pressure. Meanwhile, capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs also slowed temporarily, shifting market sentiment to caution.

But this correction was only temporary. After entering 2026, the situation changed markedly.

Improved Capital Structure, Clear Institutional Signals

The most direct evidence of recovery comes from capital flows. Early 2026, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $335 million, reflecting a rebound in risk appetite among institutions and long-term investors. More importantly, these funds come from genuine mainstream institutions.

Data shows that the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) under BlackRock had accumulated inflows of $24.7 billion by the end of 2025, and the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a total net inflow of about $31.77 billion throughout the year. What do these figures indicate? Bitcoin is shifting from a speculative asset to a mainstream allocation asset.

Tom Lee’s core logic is built on this observation:

• Market structure is gradually maturing, with increasing institutional participation
• The proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs is changing market attributes
• Regulatory environment is becoming clearer, reducing institutional entry risks
• Long-term holders are shifting behavior, easing selling pressure

On-Chain Data Confirm Demand Rebound

Not only capital flows, but on-chain data also tell a story. Recent monitoring shows that some long-term holder addresses have shifted from distribution to accumulation, with daily net additions exceeding 10,700 BTC, effectively alleviating selling pressure. Meanwhile, companies like Strategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, maintaining stable demand even during corrections.

This signal is particularly important because it indicates that institutions are not only passively allocating via ETFs but are actively increasing their holdings. This is genuine bullishness, not short-term trading.

Key Support Levels and Market Outlook

From a technical perspective, analysts generally focus on the $85,000 support level. Currently, BTC is stable at $91,320, with a 24-hour increase of 2.06% and a 7-day gain of 4.10%. If BTC can hold above $90,000, it may confirm a new upward trend.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, macro liquidity, and the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks will remain key variables influencing the 2026 market. But from a demand structure perspective, Tom Lee’s target of $180,000 is gradually shifting from a “bold prediction” to a “reachable goal.”

Summary

Bitcoin’s recovery is not an isolated event but a reflection of deep structural optimization in the market. The return of institutional capital, increased holdings by long-term investors, and the improvement of the ETF ecosystem all point in one direction: the market is preparing for a new upward cycle. From the high of $126,000 to the current $90,000+, the correction is a normal market behavior. The logic behind Tom Lee’s bullish target of $180,000 is not just about a number but about the observed market structural changes—this time, institutions are truly entering, no longer just retail players.