BTC's resilience in the geopolitical storm: Why the $90,000 mark has become a safe haven fortress

The escalation of the US-Venezuela conflict over the weekend did not shake Bitcoin; instead, it highlighted its unique status as a safe-haven asset. Against the backdrop of widespread pressure on traditional risk assets, BTC held steady near $90,000, demonstrating market resilience beyond expectations. This test provides new empirical support for the hedging properties of cryptocurrencies.

“Unusual Calm” Under Geopolitical Shock

The military conflict between the US and Venezuela erupted over the weekend, quickly attracting global attention, but Bitcoin’s performance was unexpected. Although it briefly dipped below $90,000 in early Saturday trading, it quickly rebounded, with the overall response to this sudden event being relatively limited.

According to the latest data, BTC is currently priced at $91,320.85, with a 24-hour increase of 2.06%, and a market cap maintained at $1.82 trillion, accounting for 58.64% of the total cryptocurrency market value. This performance starkly contrasts with the typical reactions of traditional financial assets during geopolitical crises.

Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin pointed out that, amid the US launching military actions and arresting foreign leaders, Bitcoin’s price nearly remained unchanged, which sends an important signal. It indicates that market participants are actively validating Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties through their actions.

Technical Support Still Intact

From a short-term trend perspective, Bitcoin’s technical foundation remains solid. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that BTC is still trading above the 21-day moving average, which is generally regarded as a key short-term support level. As long as overall market sentiment does not deteriorate significantly, Bitcoin still has the potential for further upward movement in January.

The current support system includes:

• The 21-day moving average as technical support
• The $90,000 psychological threshold
• The historical low of $80,000 as a deeper support level

Considering Bitcoin’s retreat of over 30% from its peak above $125,000 in October, maintaining stability amid sudden geopolitical events is especially critical.

Signals from Institutional Fund Flows

Meanwhile, institutional fund flows are also sending complex signals to the market. According to the latest data, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $471 million yesterday, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading at $287 million. The total net inflow into spot ETFs has reached $62.38 billion.

This suggests that institutional investors are positioning themselves amid geopolitical volatility. Notably, BlackRock is also engaging in large-scale asset transfers—depositing 1,134 BTC and 7,255 ETH into Binance at the start of 2026, which may reflect strategies to optimize asset allocation or prepare for short-term fluctuations.

Risk Warnings Before Monday Opening

It is important to note that the current calm may be delayed. Since traditional financial markets are closed over the weekend, institutional investors have not fully participated, and the market’s true reaction could still be lagging. As the US markets open on Monday, institutional funds may return, potentially amplifying volatility again.

Some traders warn that if new selling pressure emerges, Bitcoin could test key support levels again. Over $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin options are about to expire, which could act as a catalyst for short-term volatility.

Optimistic Outlook from a Mid- to Long-Term Perspective

Despite short-term risks, market participants generally remain optimistic from a mid- to long-term view. Researcher Linh Tran pointed out that the correction expected by the end of 2025 is not solely driven by retail sentiment but is closely related to macroeconomic conditions, institutional fund flows, and regulatory expectations.

Abra CEO Bill Barhydt believes that as global monetary policies gradually shift toward easing, Bitcoin is expected to benefit from liquidity revival in 2026 and re-emerge as an important option in risk asset allocation. This judgment is preliminarily validated by the strong start of Wall Street stocks—US stock index futures and the S&P 500 rising, indicating a preliminary rebound in investor risk appetite.

Summary

Bitcoin’s stable performance amid the US-Venezuela conflict once again affirms its status as a safe-haven asset, with the $90,000 level demonstrating strong support. From technical, capital flow, and mid- to long-term perspectives, the market’s fundamentals remain supported. However, it is crucial to recognize that the return of institutional funds after the US market opens on Monday could change the short-term rhythm, making the protection of key support levels vital. For investors, this period is both an opportunity to observe the market’s true response and a critical moment to assess whether risk appetite can be sustained.