Recently, I realized a logic: industry innovation narratives play PVE—level dungeons, attracting external incremental capital into the market, ultimately rewarding those who can hold onto their diamonds. Meanwhile, the macro financial liquidity cycle plays PVP—competitive confrontation, with funds rotating and flipping within the market. In the end, the cheap money often belongs to the paper hands chasing the hot spots. This set of rules applies to both the stock market and the crypto space, just with different cycle lengths.

From a different perspective: when the industry has a new narrative, it’s an incremental game—everyone is making the cake together, and how much you get depends on how long you can persist. But when macro liquidity tightens, it turns into a stockpile fight—you earn money at the expense of others’ losses. Therefore, in a liquidity-rich environment, even choosing the wrong direction might still ride the wave; but when liquidity tightens, it begins to differentiate who truly has Alpha and who is just riding the era’s red carpet.