XRP's 393-day sideways trading cycle completely overlaps with 2017. Will history repeat this time?

Crypto analyst Steph recently pointed out that the current price pattern of XRP is highly similar to the long-term consolidation phase before the major rally in 2017. Data shows that XRP has completed approximately 393 days of sideways trading, almost identical to the 395-day consolidation phase between 2016 and 2017. This coincidence in timing, combined with similar technical structures, is sparking widespread market discussions about “history repeating itself.” The latest market dynamics indicate that XRP is gradually approaching a critical decision point.

The Astonishing Similarity of Two Cycles

Perfect Alignment of Time Cycles

Between 2016 and 2017, XRP repeatedly oscillated within the $0.005 to $0.01 range for nearly a year, with long-term buying and selling forces in stalemate. Subsequently, the price entered a downtrend channel, broke upward at the channel’s end, and initiated a rapid expansion phase.

The current 2024-2025 trend shows similar characteristics. After peaking near $3.40, XRP entered a sideways consolidation, now trading within a descending channel, gradually converging toward the $1.70 to $1.90 range. More notably, the duration of this consolidation cycle nearly perfectly matches the previous cycle.

The Reference Value of Historical Market Movements

How fierce was the breakout in 2017? When XRP broke through the descending channel, it quickly reclaimed key resistance levels, surging from $0.01 to $0.03 and $0.05, eventually reaching around $0.40 later that year, with a total increase of over 5000%.

This is not just a number but a benchmark for market expectations following a breakout.

Market Support for the Current Pattern

Positive Signals from Capital Flows

From the latest market updates, XRP is attracting institutional attention. According to recent news, XRP spot ETF has attracted over $1 billion in inflows in less than two months, locking in approximately 746 million XRP, about 1% of the circulating supply.

What does this mean? The circulating supply is decreasing. The exchange reserves have fallen by 58% in 2025, and combined with the funds locked in ETFs, selling pressure is being alleviated. This tightening on the supply side is often an important signal before a major rally.

Gradual Technical Confirmation

Currently, XRP is priced at $2.08, up 3.60% in 24 hours, with a 7-day increase of 10.99%. Although the gains seem moderate, this is precisely the accumulation phase before a breakout.

Market analysis indicates XRP has rebounded above the key support level of $1.88. If this support holds effectively, the next resistance is at $2.30, followed by the previous high of $3.40.

Will History Simply Repeat?

It should be noted that history does not simply repeat itself. The market environment, participant structure, and regulatory attitudes in 2017 are fundamentally different from today. However, this structural convergence after a long sideways period is becoming a core focus in discussions about XRP’s medium- to long-term trend.

Another important factor is the fundamental improvement of Ripple itself. According to the latest news, Ripple completed a $500 million strategic financing at a $40 billion valuation, led by Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities. This indicates that Wall Street institutions have gained a new understanding of Ripple’s payment network and the value of XRP.

Key Observation Points

From the current pattern, XRP is approaching several key levels:

• Support: $1.88 (recently confirmed multiple times)
• First resistance: $2.30
• Critical resistance: $3.40 (previous high)

In the short term, the market focus will be on whether XRP can break through $2.30. An effective breakout would mean the descending channel has been broken, opening the door for greater upward potential.

Summary

XRP’s current trend, in terms of time cycles, consolidation structure, and channel pattern, is highly similar to that before the 2017 rally, which alone warrants attention. More importantly, the current market environment is undergoing positive changes: institutional funds continue to flow in via ETFs, exchange supply is decreasing, and Ripple’s fundamentals are improving.

These factors combined suggest that XRP is approaching a critical decision point. While history does not simply repeat, the structural similarities serve as a reminder to pay attention to current technical formations and capital flow changes. The next move will depend on whether XRP can effectively break through key resistance levels and whether institutional participation continues.