AVAX surges to $18? Technical breakthrough + institutional push, this wave is a bit different

Avalanche (AVAX) has performed well over the past week, prompting the market to take this project more seriously. From holding the $12 support level to breaking through the descending trendline, and with institutional ETFs gradually increasing their positions, this doesn’t seem like a simple rebound but rather a structural turning point. The current price is $14.00, how far is it from the $18 target? What is the underlying logic?

Triple Confirmation of Technical Breakthrough

AVAX’s recent rise didn’t happen out of nowhere. Quick analysis indicates that the breakout has three clear confirmation factors:

• Successfully holding the core support zone at $12-$12.50, indicating genuine buying interest below
• Breaking through the descending trendline that has persisted throughout December in the $13.50-$13.70 range, which is a key technical turning point
• The breakout is based on a clear demand zone, not just emotional trading

What does this mean? It means this rebound has structural support. As long as the price stays above $13.00-$13.40, the short-term bullish momentum remains dominant.

Signals from Moving Averages Reordering

More noteworthy is the change in moving averages. AVAX has, for the first time in months, crossed above the 50-day moving average, which is often seen as an important signal of a short-term trend reversal. If it continues to approach the 100-day moving average, it will further reinforce expectations of a sustained rebound.

However, objectively speaking, the 200-day moving average still remains higher, indicating that the current phase is still a recovery stage rather than a full mid- to long-term bull market reversal. In other words, this is a rebound within a bear market, not the start of a new bull market.

Substantive Significance of Institutional Driving

Information shows that in recent days, AVAX has attracted concentrated attention from institutional investors. Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, among others, have updated their filings for AVAX spot ETFs, even adding staking yield mechanisms. This is no small matter.

According to reports, Grayscale plans to list its AVAX spot ETF on NASDAQ under the ticker GAVX, with a maximum staking allowance of 70% of holdings. This means institutional investors are not only optimistic about AVAX’s price but also value its attributes as an asset capable of generating network yields. The emergence of such a framework is substantively attractive to long-term capital.

Key Price Range Expectations

From the current $14.00, the next critical levels are:

From a technical perspective, $18 is not set arbitrarily. The move from current levels to $18 is approximately 28%. If it breaks through and stabilizes above the $14.50-$15.00 resistance zone, a further extension to $16.20 is reasonable. Whether it can challenge $18.00 depends on subsequent trading volume and market sentiment.

Personal View: Nature of This Market Movement

My observation is that this AVAX rally is more like a technically confirmed structural rebound rather than the start of a new bull market. The distinction is:

• The rebound is a recovery from a bear market, with clear technical support points
• A bull market requires breaking new highs with stronger fundamental backing

Currently, AVAX has all the elements for a rebound: trend reversal on the technical side, institutional capital involvement, improvements in tokenomics (staking yield design). But calling it a new bull market still depends on whether it can break previous highs and the macro environment supporting the market.

What to Watch Next

According to quick analysis, the upcoming weeks will determine whether AVAX can complete the critical transition from rebound to trend extension in Q1 2026. Key points to observe:

• Whether trading volume continues to support the breakout above $14.50-$15.00
• Whether the $12.50 support truly holds, which determines the integrity of the bullish structure
• Progress of institutional ETFs, which will influence the inflow of long-term capital
• The macro liquidity environment, which is the underlying logic of the entire crypto market

Summary

AVAX’s rebound from $12 to $14, and the expected move toward $18, involves both technical and fundamental factors aligning. The push from institutional ETFs is not hype but reflects the project’s actual value within the DeFi ecosystem. However, it’s important to recognize that this is still a rebound phase, not a new bull market. The $18 target will require breaking through the key resistance at $14.50-$15.00. The upcoming weeks will determine how far this rebound can go.