#预测市场 The doubts surrounding Polymarket are worth paying attention to. Trump claims a sales volume of $1.3 billion, but the core criteria used by the prediction platform are quite clear: it must be "final approval + payment completed" to count. Based on current information, this figure remains more at the promise stage, with a gap in the payment verification process.

On Polymarket, the prediction that "sales volume is zero" has a probability of up to 89%, reflecting the market's skepticism about the authenticity of the data. Participants in such prediction platforms usually cast votes with funds; a high probability indicates that most believe this claim is not sufficiently supported.

From an on-chain and fund perspective, if indeed $1.3 billion has actually flowed in, there should be traces left in related on-chain transfer records and payment channels. Currently, no corresponding on-chain signals have been publicly confirmed. It is recommended to watch for future disclosures of specific proof of payment completion or audit reports from official sources, as these are the key indicators to verify authenticity. Impressive numbers do not necessarily mean the funds have been received.