Analysis of International Natural Gas Futures Prices and Market Outlook for 2026

Natural Gas Futures are an attractive asset for investors, serving not only as a simple energy resource but also as a means of portfolio diversification. This guide will comprehensively cover the basic concepts of gas futures, the factors influencing their prices, and the market outlook until 2026.

Futures vs. Spot: Key Differences to Understand

Before investing in natural gas futures, it is important to understand the fundamental differences between spot trading and futures trading.

Spot transactions are settled immediately at the time of trade, exchanging physical assets, whereas futures are contracts that agree to complete the transaction on a predetermined future date(maturity date). Due to this structural difference, several key features emerge.

Settlement Mechanism Difference: In spot trading, payment is made immediately after the contract, while in gas futures, settlement occurs only at maturity. Spot has no concept of maturity, whereas futures have a fixed end date, and if that date is passed, the contract automatically terminates.

Asset Delivery and Price Determination: In spot trading, traders exchange actual assets at the current market price. In contrast, futures involve an intermediary exchange that settles the difference based on the actual price at maturity.

Leverage Usage: Spot trading generally does not allow leverage, but natural gas futures can utilize leverage through margin systems. This means traders can open larger positions with less capital.

Liquidity Difference: Futures are standardized contracts and tend to have higher liquidity than spot markets, making transactions easier. This is due to the participation of various market players such as investors, hedge funds, and energy companies.

6 Major Factors Influencing Gas Futures Prices

1. Basic Supply and Demand Dynamics

Like most commodities, natural gas futures are sensitive to supply and demand imbalances. The fundamental law applies: demand increase → price rise, supply increase → price fall. Factors such as heating/cooling demand, industrial activity, and power plant fuel consumption drive demand, while production volume, extraction technology, and infrastructure conditions determine supply.

2. Seasonal and Climate Variables

Extreme weather events can cause short-term spikes in gas futures prices. Severe cold or heatwaves lead to a surge in heating and cooling demand, directly resulting in price increases.

3. Macroeconomic Indicators

Global economic growth rates, especially manufacturing and power plant utilization, are key indicators that determine natural gas demand. When industrial activity is vigorous, energy demand increases, pushing up natural gas futures prices.

4. Geopolitical Risks

Wars, international conflicts, and political instability in major producing countries increase supply chain uncertainties. Even if supply volume remains unchanged, risk premiums are reflected in prices, increasing volatility.

5. Competition from Alternative Energies

Changes in the prices of alternative energies such as oil, coal, and electricity alter the relative competitiveness of natural gas. When alternative energies become cheaper, demand for natural gas decreases, leading to a decline in gas futures prices.

6. Regulations and Environmental Policies

Changes in carbon regulations and energy policies in various countries also impact long-term demand.

Market Outlook for Natural Gas Futures in 2025-2026

Market research agencies and investment banks’ outlooks for 2025-2026 are summarized as follows:

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Average of $4.2 in 2025, $4.5 in 2026

Goldman Sachs: $3.6 in 2025, $4.15 in 2026

J.P. Morgan: Gradual increase with an average of $3.5 in 2025 and $3.94 in 2026

Bank of America: Optimistic view with approximately $4.64 in 2025 and around $4.50 in 2026

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that supply increases in 2025 may not keep pace with rising demand in Asia, leading to ongoing market instability and high volatility. Such uncertainties are likely to persist into 2026.

( Current Gas Futures Market Situation

Currently, natural gas futures are priced around $3.91. This represents an 86.19% increase compared to last year and a 26.66% rise since the beginning of the year. Prices have been steadily rising since November but recently declined by 3.15% over the past week.

Considering this volatility, investors might consider buying positions but should approach cautiously, preparing for market fluctuations. Short-term monitoring strategies or flexible trading tools may be prudent.

Flexible Access to Gas Futures via CFDs

To trade natural gas more flexibly, consider using CFDs)Contract for Difference(.

CFDs are products that profit from the price difference between opening and closing positions. For example, opening a long position and then seeing the price rise results in profit from the difference.

Advantages of CFDs:

• No fixed expiry date; positions can be closed at any desired time
• Higher leverage than futures
• Ability to trade various assets such as stocks, indices, currencies, besides natural gas
• 24-hour trading availability
• Bidirectional positions)buy/sell### allow profit in both rising and falling markets

Disadvantages of CFDs:

• Higher fees compared to futures
• Lower liquidity may lead to slippage risks
• Complex products requiring professional knowledge
• Increased risk of losses when using leverage

Considerations When Investing in Natural Gas Futures

When entering the gas futures market, check the following:

1. Monitor supply-demand news and seasonal patterns
2. Track geopolitical risks
3. Watch for changes in energy policies
4. Acquire sufficient foundational knowledge before trading
5. Prioritize risk management(loss limits, position sizing)
6. Avoid being swayed by short-term volatility

The overall trend for natural gas futures in 2025-2026 is expected to be upward, but ongoing supply uncertainties and geopolitical risks will likely sustain volatility. Investors should understand market fundamentals and develop trading strategies aligned with their risk appetite, approaching cautiously.