## Will Gold Rise in 2025-2026? A Comprehensive Analysis of Factors and Investment Opportunities

Gold is no longer just a precious metal stored in vaults; it has become a genuine investment tool that millions around the world are betting on. This year has seen a historic surge that most major investment banks did not anticipate. Gold prices have risen by over 50% since the beginning of the year, breaking the $4,381 per ounce barrier in mid-October – a figure even JPMorgan did not initially forecast.

Today, serious investors are asking one question: Will gold rise further in the coming years? The answer is not simple, but the data tells an intriguing story.

## Gold in 2024: The Foundation Year for Success

Before understanding where gold is headed, we need to look back a little. In 2024, the story started quietly. The first quarter saw a modest increase, reaching $2,251 per ounce, supported by heavy buying from central banks, especially in China and India. Then things accelerated.

By mid-year, gold broke the $2,450 level – a milestone that was unexpected at that stage. There were three main drivers:
- Increasing hopes of a US interest rate cut
- Gradual weakening of the US dollar
- Widespread short position liquidations fueling the rally

By year's end, gold stabilized above $2,660, confirming that this was not just a passing trend but a genuine movement reflecting deep shifts in global markets.

## 2025: The Year Gold Surpassed All Expectations

What happened in 2025 was even beyond the most optimistic forecasts. In January, gold traded around $2,798. But by September, the price had reached $3,770 – an increase of over 40% in just nine months.

Then October brought the biggest surprise: gold broke the $4,000 mark for the first time in history on October 8, and continued rising until reaching $4,381 in mid-month. This means that those who bought gold at the start of the year achieved unprecedented profits.

Now, the real question is: Will gold rise even more from here?

## Factors Driving Gold Higher

**Persistent Inflation**
Although inflation decreased to 3% in September 2025, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In such an environment, gold remains the top choice for safeguarding savings. When currencies lose value, gold becomes more attractive.

**Central Bank Policies**
Global central banks have not stopped buying gold. This steady institutional demand forms a strong foundation for prices. When central banks ease their monetary policies (cut interest rates), gold – which does not yield interest – becomes more appealing.

**Safe Havens in Times of Uncertainty**
Geopolitical tensions surround us from all sides. In such times, investors flock to gold. It’s like insurance against disasters – you may not use it, but you want to own it.

**Weak US Dollar**
A weak dollar = strong gold. This simple and effective equation. When the dollar index declines, gold prices rise because international buyers can purchase more.

## Expert Predictions: Will Gold Really Rise?

Major analysts differ slightly in details but agree on the overall trend – continued upward movement:

- **JPMorgan:** Average $5,000 by 2026, with a potential reaching $4,900 in Q4
- **Goldman Sachs:** At least $4,000 mid-2026, with an optimistic scenario at $4,900
- **Morgan Stanley:** $4,500 by mid-2026
- **HSBC:** Expects $5,000
- **ANZ:** $4,400 by the end of 2025, and $4,600 by mid-2026

This broad consensus on the upward trend should tell you something – the path appears clear, and gold may indeed rise.

## But Beware: Risks That Could Break the Uptrend

Not everything is rosy. There are scenarios that could reverse gold’s trajectory:

**A Sudden Pivot by the Federal Reserve**
If US authorities decide to raise interest rates again due to renewed inflation, gold will become less attractive compared to US bonds offering better yields.

**End of Geopolitical Tensions**
If some major international conflicts are officially resolved, demand for “safe havens” may decline, and investors might shift to more profitable assets.

**Mass Exit from Gold**
If institutional investors start withdrawing from gold funds en masse, prices could fall rapidly.

## How to Invest in Gold Now?

If you believe gold will indeed rise and want to benefit, here are your options:

**For Conservative Investors: Physical Gold**
Buy gold bars or coins and store them in a safe. This option is secure but may pose storage and insurance challenges.

**For Investors Seeking Flexibility: Gold ETFs**
Buy shares in gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Easy, quick, and without storage hassles.

**For Active Traders: Gold Futures or CFDs**
If you’re looking for quick profits from short-term price fluctuations, these options are suitable – but beware of risks.

## Summary: Yes, Gold Might Rise

All indicators suggest that gold could continue its upward trend through 2026. But that doesn’t mean the road will be smooth. Corrections may occur, bad news could shake the market. However, the overall direction – based on fundamental factors – remains bullish.

Gold is not only a safe haven but a genuine investment asset. Those who understand this and plan carefully could achieve good profits in the coming years.