2026 Market Outlook: Will Precious Metals, Cryptos, and Equities Break Records as Institutions Predict?

After the dramatic swings of 2025, major financial institutions are laying out their roadmap for the year ahead. Here’s what the biggest players are betting on across eight critical markets—and where their views diverge sharply.

The Precious Metals Rally: Gold and Silver Lead the Charge

Gold’s winning streak shows no signs of stopping. Last year saw prices surge 60%—the strongest calendar year since 1979—fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts, relentless central bank accumulation, and persistent geopolitical flashpoints.

The World Gold Council projects gold could climb another 5% to 15% in 2026 under normal conditions. But in riskier scenarios involving economic deceleration and faster Fed easing, the precious metal could rally 15% to 30%. Investment banks are overwhelmingly constructive. Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900/oz, while Bank of America’s year-end forecast sits at USD 5,000/oz—supported by swelling fiscal deficits and mounting debt servicing costs that should keep central banks and investors bid.

Silver may actually outperform gold. The Silver Institute warns of a structural supply crunch emerging globally, driven by surging industrial usage, reviving investment inflows, and slowing mine output. UBS elevated its 2026 price target to USD 58–60/oz, with USD 65/oz possible. Bank of America echoes this bullishness with the same USD 65/oz target—suggesting the gold-silver ratio compression seen in 2025 has further to run.

Cryptos at a Crossroads: Bitcoin Faces Debate, Ethereum Sparks Optimism

Bitcoin enters 2026 amid conflicting signals. After hitting record highs before retreating to near year-end flatness, the flagship crypto faces split-personality forecasts from Wall Street. Standard Chartered revised its target down from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, citing reduced government treasury purchases of bitcoin. Bernstein also sees USD 150,000 in 2026, but adds a bullish 2027 call for USD 200,000—arguing Bitcoin has exited its historic four-year cycle and entered an elongated bull phase.

Morgan Stanley begs to differ, insisting the four-year pattern remains intact and warning that this bull run is approaching exhaustion. The institutional split matters: current pricing places Bitcoin at $91.44K (up 1.87% in the last 24 hours), leaving substantial room should bulls prevail but also downside risk if the four-year thesis holds.

Ethereum tells a different story—one of near-term volatility masking longer-term potential. The blockchain network also ended 2025 flat, despite heavier drawdowns than Bitcoin. Yet institutions see the next catalyst in tokenization, where trillions could be unlocked through digital asset infrastructure. JPMorgan stresses this theme heavily, while BitMain’s Tom Lee goes further, forecasting ETH at USD 20,000 in 2026 and declaring 2025 the bottom. Current pricing stands at $3.14K (+1.46% intraday), meaning Lee’s call implies a 540% upside—a bold bet that rests on tokenization adoption accelerating.

Equities: The AI Decade Rolls Forward

The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are seen extending 2025’s outperformance. Tech stocks gained 22% last year, beating the S&P 500’s 18%, marking the third straight year of strength. JPMorgan flagged that hyperscale data centre operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta—will sustain massive capex to build AI infrastructure, with cumulative spending potentially reaching hundreds of billions by 2026.

This investment should prop up semiconductor and related plays like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom. JPMorgan sees upside scenarios where the S&P 500 touches 7,500, while Deutsche Bank’s more aggressive view targets 8,000 by year-end. Translating these forecasts to the Nasdaq 100 suggests potential levels above 27,000 points, contingent on earnings growth remaining solid and AI spending staying elevated.

FX Markets: Dollar Weakness and Contrasting Bets

The euro strengthened 13% against the dollar in 2025—the biggest annual move in nearly eight years. Diverging monetary paths, with the Fed cutting rates and the ECB holding firm, support further EUR/USD appreciation. JPMorgan and Nomura target 1.20 by year-end 2026, while Bank of America’s more bullish scenario points to 1.22. However, Morgan Stanley warns that U.S. economic resilience in H2 could reverse course, seeing EUR/USD initially climb to 1.23 before sliding back to 1.16.

The yen carries its own tensions. USD/JPY finished 2025 down roughly 1%, and 2026 forecasts split sharply. JPMorgan expects Bank of Japan rate hikes to be fully priced in, with fiscal expansion in Japan weighing on the yen—driving USD/JPY toward 164. Nomura counters that shrinking interest rate differentials will make yen carry trades less attractive, and any U.S. economic softness could spark unwinding, pushing USD/JPY down to 140.

Energy: Oversupply Clouds the Outlook

Crude oil slumped nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ opened taps and U.S. production surged. Looking forward, downside risks dominate. Goldman Sachs sketches a bearish scenario with WTI averaging USD 52/barrel and Brent at USD 56. JPMorgan similarly warns of USD 54 and USD 58 averages respectively, assuming OPEC+ supply stays ample and global demand growth softens. Geopolitical upside remains, but the base case leans oversupply.

The Bottom Line: 2026 will be a year of conviction plays, sharp institutional disagreements, and data-dependent pivots. Gold and silver appear to have the strongest tailwinds, equities hinge on sustained AI investment, cryptos remain polarizing, and energy faces structural headwinds. Watch Fed policy, geopolitics, and earnings revisions—they’ll determine which forecasts come true.