#比特币价格与估值 Seeing the latest institutional forecasts, I have a few honest words to say. The numbers from Galaxy and Citibank are indeed enticing—$250,000 and $143,000—but the key is to understand the logic behind these predictions.

Let's look at the current situation: BTC is hovering around $100,000, and the market is uncertain. By the end of 2026, institutional option pricing shows roughly equal probabilities of dropping to $50,000 or rising to $250,000—what does this indicate? The market has no consensus, and volatility is significant.

My observation is this: in the short term (2026), it’s indeed dull, but the long-term logic is clear. Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset into an institutional asset. ETF demand is rebounding, and monetary policy is easing—all positive signs. Continuous institutional entry means volatility is decreasing, and pricing will become more rational.

**Practical advice:**
1. Don’t focus solely on the $250,000 target; pay attention to the $70,000 support level.
2. If you are truly optimistic about the long term, current pullbacks are actually opportunities.
3. Keep an eye on ETF data and institutional holdings changes—these are much more accurate than price predictions.

In essence, rather than obsessing over how high it will go, it’s better to understand that Bitcoin is becoming a hedge asset similar to gold. Grasp this concept, and the subsequent operational logic will become clear.