Will gold rise to $5000 in 2026? Or will it decline?

After gold broke the $4,300 per ounce barrier in October 2025 and achieved historic gains, the most pressing question for investors is: Will gold go down again? The answer is more complex than it appears on the surface. The yellow metal now stands at a crossroads between two completely contradictory scenarios.

Bullish forecasts dominate the market

Most experts and major financial institutions bet on continued upward movement. HSBC expects gold to reach $5,000 in the first half of 2026 with an annual average of $4,600. Bank of America also raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400. Even Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4,900, and J.P. Morgan expects $5,055 by mid-2026.

Consensus points to a resistance range between $4,800 and $5,000, with an annual average between $4,200 and $4,800. This means most scenarios exclude a sharp decline and focus on slight corrections within an overall bullish trend.

What supports continued rise?

Four key factors sustain strong support for gold:

1. Central banks keep buying: They added 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone. China contributed over 65 tons. Currently, 44% of global central banks hold gold reserves, up from 37% a year ago. This ongoing buying forms a strong support wall that’s hard to break.

2. US interest rate cuts are coming: The Federal Reserve has started lowering rates and expects further cuts in December 2025. Each cut weakens the dollar and reduces opportunity costs for gold. US 10-year bonds have fallen from 4.6% to 4.07%, indicating very weak real yields.

3. Gold ETFs are experiencing a flood of capital: Managed assets reached $472 billion, with holdings of 3,838 tons, close to a historic peak. New investors are entering strongly, with 28% of new investors in developed markets adding gold to their portfolios.

4. Supply is struggling: Mine production has increased only 1% annually, while demand is surging at high rates. The cost of gold extraction has reached $1,470 per ounce, the highest in a decade, limiting expansion in production.

Will gold really go down again?

Yes, but under very specific conditions:

Scenario 1 (Natural correction): HSBC itself warns of a possible correction toward $4,200 in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits. This is not a collapse but a normal pullback within an upward trend.

Scenario 2 (Deeper decline): HSBC rules out a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs. Goldman Sachs warns that prices above $4,800 are subject to a “price credibility test,” meaning they need confirmation from actual demand.

Scenario 3 (No decline): J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank raise their forecasts, confirming that gold has entered a new price zone that’s difficult to break downward due to strategic shifts in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Technical analysis indicates neutrality currently

On the daily chart, gold closed at $4,065 on November 21, 2025, after touching $4,381. Strong support is centered around $4,000. Breaking this level with a clear daily close could open the way toward $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

However, the RSI indicator is steady at 50, indicating complete neutrality. The MACD remains above the signal line, confirming an upward trend. This suggests the market is in a waiting or accumulation phase before the next move.

Upper resistance levels start at $4,200, then $4,400, reaching up to $4,680.

Geopolitical factors remain bullish

Trade tensions between the US and China, uncertainty in the Middle East, and global debt levels (exceeding 100% of GDP) all push investors toward safe havens. Reuters reports that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased demand by 7% annually.

The real conclusion

Will gold go down again? The main debate is not between bullish or bearish, but between strong rise or moderate rise. Even the most conservative forecasts exclude a sharp collapse. Corrections are expected, but the overall context remains positive as long as:

• Interest rates stay low
• Central banks continue buying
• Supply remains limited
• No major economic shock occurs

Under these conditions, gold may retreat to $4,000–$4,200, but without losing the upward momentum that has driven it so far. Cautious investors might welcome the correction as a buying opportunity, while traders could take profits at the peaks. In both cases, the story remains bullish in the medium and long term.