Digital Assets, Precious Metals, and Currency Markets in 2026: What the World's Top Banks Expect

The financial landscape entering 2026 presents a complex mix of opportunities and risks. After 2025’s volatile movements across commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency markets, major institutions have shifted their outlook. Here’s what Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and other leading banks are positioning for in the year ahead.

The AI-Driven Equity Rally Continues, but at a Slower Pace

The Nasdaq 100 surged 22% through 2025, and most strategists expect this momentum to persist into 2026, though with moderation. JPMorgan points to hyperscale data centre operators—Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta—as the key drivers, with cumulative capex potentially reaching several hundred billion dollars. This technological investment wave is expected to lift NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom higher.

Deutsche Bank has turned remarkably bullish, projecting the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 by end-2026 in optimistic scenarios, translating to potential Nasdaq 100 levels above 27,000. JPMorgan’s more conservative estimate still targets the S&P 500 near 7,500, suggesting broad-based equity strength but with some guardrails on euphoria.

Precious Metals Enter a New Structural Bull Phase

Gold’s 60% surge in 2025—the largest annual gain since 1979—appears to be just the beginning. The World Gold Council expects further upside as Fed rate cuts, dollar weakness, and persistent geopolitical tensions converge. In base-case scenarios, gold could appreciate 5% to 15% in 2026, with more aggressive outcomes seeing 15% to 30% gains if central banks continue buying and U.S. fiscal deficits widen.

Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900 per ounce by year-end 2026, while Bank of America’s projection of USD 5,000/oz reflects confidence in sustained central bank demand and ETF inflows. Both banks cite similar catalysts: the ongoing dollar depreciation cycle and the structural need for central banks to diversify reserves away from traditional assets.

Silver has emerged as the standout performer, with supply-demand dynamics far more compelling than gold. The Silver Institute warns of a persistent structural deficit as industrial demand remains robust and investment appetite rebounds. UBS upgraded its 2026 target to USD 58–60/oz, with upside to USD 65/oz. Bank of America matches this USD 65/oz forecast, making silver the potentially sharper outperformer of the two precious metals.

Bitcoin Faces an Inflection Point; Ethereum’s Tokenization Thesis Gains Ground

Bitcoin’s volatility contrasts sharply with its modest price action in late 2025, with prices currently hovering around $91.36K after recent momentum. Institutional forecasts diverge materially. Standard Chartered downgraded its Bitcoin target to USD 150,000 from USD 200,000, citing reduced expectations for Digital Asset Treasury purchases. Bernstein, however, argues Bitcoin has broken its four-year cycle and remains in an elongated bull market, projecting USD 150,000 in 2026 and USD 200,000 by 2027.

Morgan Stanley strikes a contrarian note, warning that the four-year cycle remains intact and the rally may be nearing its terminus. This debate reflects genuine uncertainty about whether institutional adoption and ETF inflows have structurally changed Bitcoin’s cyclicality.

Ethereum, trading near $3.14K with modest gains, faces a different narrative. JPMorgan’s research emphasizes the transformative potential of tokenization—the migration of real-world assets onto blockchain infrastructure. Tom Lee, BitMain’s Chairman, predicts a USD 20,000 ETH target for 2026, arguing that Ethereum bottomed in 2025 and is positioned for a significant rally. This thesis hinges on enterprise adoption of tokenization accelerating faster than current consensus pricing suggests.

Currency Markets Reflect Monetary Policy Divergence

The dollar’s weakness in 2025—with EUR/USD rising 13%, the largest annual gain in nearly eight years—signals investor rotation away from dollar assets. This trend is expected to intensify in 2026 as the Fed continues easing while the European Central Bank holds rates steady.

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD reaching 1.20 by year-end 2026, while Bank of America targets 1.22, reflecting bullish euro sentiment. Morgan Stanley offers a more nuanced view: EUR/USD could rally to 1.23 in the first half before retreating to 1.16 in H2 2026 if U.S. economic outperformance reasserts itself.

USD/JPY represents perhaps the most contested currency pair in 2026. The yen carry trade remains a critical factor in global liquidity positioning. JPMorgan and Barclays expect USD/JPY to strengthen toward 164, arguing that BOJ rate hike expectations are already priced in. Nomura counters that narrowing interest rate differentials could unwind carry positions, with USD/JPY potentially falling to 140. Converting 200,000 yen to USD at 140 yields approximately $1,428, versus $1,538 at 164—a meaningful spread reflecting this uncertainty.

Energy Markets Face Downside Pressure from Oversupply

Crude oil’s nearly 20% decline in 2025 reflected OPEC+ production increases and rising U.S. output. Looking ahead, the balance of risks tilts toward oversupply. Goldman Sachs projects a bearish scenario where WTI crude averages USD 52/barrel and Brent USD 56/barrel in 2026. JPMorgan similarly highlights downside scenarios, with WTI near USD 54/barrel and Brent around USD 58/barrel.

This outlook assumes OPEC+ maintains elevated production and global demand growth moderates—reasonable baseline assumptions given current supply dynamics. The near-term risk appears asymmetric to the downside unless geopolitical disruptions emerge suddenly.

The Bottom Line: Risk Assets Rise, Currencies Shift, Energy Retreats

2026 appears poised to deliver higher equity prices supported by AI capex, precious metals gains underpinned by structural demand, and a structurally weaker dollar. Cryptocurrency markets remain contested, with Bitcoin’s cyclicality debated but Ethereum’s tokenization wave gaining institutional credibility. Currency pairs will hinge on monetary policy execution, while energy faces headwinds from production excess.