Friends say that, really, the domestic economy has already entered the early stages of a depression.

Those inside the system and office workers might not feel it yet, but we on the front lines of trade and supply have been thoroughly educated.

A few years ago, suppliers were the big bosses; now, the front end of channels is the real boss: no shortage of goods, no shortage of quality products, no shortage of entrepreneurs, only top-tier channels are missing (like Walmart, Pang Donglai).

Online rumors say Maotai's price drop is because young people no longer drink it? Wrong, it's because everyone has stopped consuming.
If prices don't drop, they die; if they do, competition intensifies. Everyone competes together, forming a death spiral—the entire industry’s prices plummet, but sales volume can't increase year-over-year.

Now is the consumers' last brief period of benefit; good products are really cheap, but this good time won't last long. Next, a wave of layoffs and pay cuts will inevitably follow, and some places have already started.

If the Great Depression of 1929 started in the US, then the 2026 Great Depression is very likely to originate from the East.

I checked history, and it looks very similar. Before crises, it’s always driven by top global manufacturing industries taking off. The difference is, after the economy improves, Americans leverage their money to invest in the stock market; East Asians leverage their money into the real estate market. All the money gets trapped by leverage, and lack of liquidity is the prelude to a crisis.

Friends, have you felt it? Have you made some preparations? Let me share some thoughts.