#比特币价格预测 Seeing these forecasts for 2026, my mind can't help but flash back to the cycles we've experienced over the past decade or so. Delphi Digital suggests that liquidity may improve, and new highs in gold indicate a spring for Bitcoin; Galaxy Research paints a picture of a highly volatile but still potentially new high future, while Luke Gromen, a long-term holder, suddenly turns bearish—this kind of divergence, I've seen it in 2017 and 2021.

The difference this time is that the underlying logic has changed. It's no longer just a game of FOMO versus panic, but a more complex interplay of variables like liquidity expectations, AI computing power competition, and quantum threats. Gromen mentioned that Tether's gold reserves exceed Bitcoin holdings, a detail worth pondering—big players are quietly changing their chip allocations, which often signals a market turning point.

The liquidity wave of 2020 saw Bitcoin rise from $3,000 to $69,000, but that was a product of unlimited QE. Now, although central banks are beginning to cut rates and fiscal deficits are pushing debt monetization, it's hard to replicate that "nuclear-level money printing" scenario. The report's mention of a "clearer, more predictable easing pace" sounds more like—liquidity still exists, but its rhythm is being managed more strictly.

History tells me that the most dangerous moments in each cycle are often not during a bear market, but when the bullish and bearish sentiments are most divided. This is exactly that stage. If you're betting on 2026, rather than wagering on the price direction, it’s better to focus on the moments when policy turning points truly arrive—when the Fed truly initiates a new round of easing, the speed of fiscal deficit monetization, and further moves by the People's Bank of China. These are the decisive variables.