Pork Futures Show Weakness as Year Winds Down

ChainDoctor · 2026-01-04T14:25:43+00:00

Lean hog futures fell by 5 to 35 cents, influenced by weak market trends as 2024 approaches. Despite this, managed money investors increased long positions, indicating interest at current price levels, while export demand remains robust. Carcass values declined slightly, with mixed results in futures contracts suggesting potential stabilization.

ChainDoctor

2026-01-04 14:25:43

Abstract generation in progress

Lean hog futures recorded declines ranging from five cents to 35 cents during trading on Wednesday, reflecting broader softness in the hog market as 2024 draws to a close. The CME Lean Hog Index retreated 19 points to $82.25 on December 29, signaling continued pressure on benchmark pricing. USDA’s national base price for hogs settled at $70.19 Wednesday afternoon, marking a 19-cent pullback from Tuesday’s close.

Managed Money Positioning Shifts

Despite the price weakness, positioning data reveals a more nuanced picture. According to CFTC weekly reports, managed money investors expanded their net long positions in lean hog futures and options by 10,489 contracts during the week ending December 23, bringing their cumulative long exposure to 75,325 contracts. This uptick suggests some investors may be viewing current price levels as attractive entry points.

Export Demand and Supply Metrics

The USDA’s delayed Export Sales report provides insight into underlying demand dynamics. For the week of December 18, exporters recorded 18,978 MT of pork committed to 2025 shipment, while forward bookings for 2026 reached 25,998 MT. Weekly export volumes totaled 34,850 MT during this period, illustrating the ongoing global appetite for U.S. pork products despite domestic price pressures.

Processing Activity and Carcass Values

The Wednesday afternoon pork carcass cutout value declined 39 cents to $93.74 per cwt, placing downward pressure across most primal cuts. Only the picnic and ham segments managed to post gains, suggesting selective strength in specific market segments while broader wholesale pricing faced headwinds. Federal slaughter estimates for Wednesday reached 418,000 head, with the weekly total hitting 1.36 million head.

Contract Settlement Review

Futures contracts closed mixed, with February 2026 hog contracts ending at $85.100, down $0.350 for the session. April 2026 contracts finished at $89.900, declining $0.275, while May 2026 contracts edged lower by just $0.050 to close at $94.000. The modest declines in distant contracts suggest market participants may be pricing in stabilization ahead.

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