Why Joby Aviation Stock Could Turn Into a 10x Winner: The eVTOL Gamble Explained

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) went public four years ago via SPAC merger at $10.62 per share. Today it hovers around $13—a disappointing return for early believers. But beneath the surface, the company is positioning itself in a market that could explode over the next two decades.

The Technology Moat: How Joby Outpaces Competitors

The heart of Joby’s competitive edge lies in its S4 aircraft design. Carrying one pilot and four passengers, the S4 can travel 150 miles per charge at speeds up to 200 mph. Compare that to Archer Aviation’s Midnight: same passenger capacity, but limited to 100 miles range and 150 mph top speed.

The difference? Engineering. Joby’s tilt-rotor propellers rotate between lifting and cruising modes, making the aircraft more energy-efficient and aerodynamic. Archer’s fixed propeller design—separate systems for takeoff and cruise—adds weight and drag.

Even more ambitious, Joby is developing a hydrogen-powered variant that can travel five times farther and recharge faster. The company operates a five-aircraft test fleet including one hydrogen prototype, giving it real-world flight data competitors are still pursuing.

The Reality Check: Missing Revenue Targets

In 2023, Joby promised explosive growth: $131 million in 2024 revenue, jumping to $721 million in 2025, then $2.05 billion in 2026. What actually happened? The company generated $136,000 in 2024 from a U.S. Air Force contract while burning through $608 million in losses.

That’s not just a miss—it’s a cautionary tale about SPAC-backed startups overpromising and underdelivering. Yet the company hasn’t abandoned its ambitions. It holds a $131 million Department of Defense contract for up to nine eVTOL aircraft, having delivered two aircraft and one test unit to Dubai.

Strategic Partnerships That Matter

Joby acquired Uber’s Elevate division in 2020 and Blade’s helicopter hailing service in August 2025. These weren’t random purchases—they’re infrastructure plays for its future air taxi network.

Uber plans to integrate Joby’s S4 directly into its app. Delta Air Lines, another major backer, is collaborating with both Uber and Joby to launch air taxi routes in New York and Los Angeles. Toyota is a significant investor. These aren’t venture experiments; they’re Fortune 500 companies betting on Joby’s aircraft.

The 2026 Inflection Point

Here’s the catalysts: Joby expects FAA approval for commercial flights in 2026 and plans to launch its first air taxi service in Dubai that same year. Analysts project revenue of $40 million in 2025, $113 million in 2026, and $207 million in 2027.

Those numbers sound modest. But context matters. At a $12.7 billion market cap, JOBY trades at 61 times 2027 sales—expensive by traditional metrics. However, the addressable market tells a different story.

The 30-Year Runway: Why the Valuation Could Make Sense

Eve Air Mobility’s Global Market Outlook forecasts 30,000 eVTOLs carrying three billion passengers annually by 2045, replacing helicopters for regional transportation.

Joby doesn’t publicize S4 pricing, but industry estimates peg each aircraft at roughly $1.3 million. If Joby captures one-third of the market and sells 10,000 aircraft annually by 2045, that’s $13 billion in annual revenue.

Even with price compression as manufacturing scales—say $1 million per unit by then—the company could still hit $10 billion in yearly revenue. At a modest 13 times sales multiple, that implies a $130 billion market cap. From today’s perspective, that’s roughly a 10x return.

The Risk You Can’t Ignore

This is speculative. FAA approval could face delays. Regulatory hurdles in international markets are unpredictable. Competitors won’t stand still. Battery technology and hydrogen infrastructure remain unproven at scale.

Joby is betting on a future industry that exists on paper and test flights. For patient long-term investors comfortable with volatility, it could deliver outsized returns. For anyone seeking certainty, this stock remains a contrarian play, not a sure thing.