Wheat Complex Slides Into Year-End Session with Broad Weakness

Grain traders are navigating a challenging end to 2024, with wheat futures showing consistent pressure across all three major contract venues. The recent session painted a decidedly bearish picture, as selling interest persisted throughout the wheat complex despite approaching holiday closures.

Price Deterioration Spreads Across Trading Hubs

Chicago’s soft red winter futures declined 2 to 3 cents per bushel, while Kansas City hard red winter contracts posted more substantial losses of 5 to 6 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat experienced more modest erosion, sliding fractionally on the session. The weakness proved broad-based, reflecting systemic selling pressure rather than localized market concerns.

Open interest dynamics revealed mixed signals: Chicago saw activity build with 6,890 additional contracts, suggesting fresh speculative positioning, while Kansas City’s preliminary open interest contracted by 8,181 contracts—indicating some liquidation ahead of the holiday break.

Specific Contract Performance

March CBOT wheat settled at $5.10 3/4, posting a 2 1/4-cent decline from the prior close. May CBOT followed suit, closing at $5.22 and down 2 3/4 cents for the session.

Kansas City’s March contract proved the day’s biggest loser, dropping 5 1/4 cents to $5.22, while May KCBT fell an identical amount to finish at $5.35. Minneapolis March wheat closed at $5.79 1/2 (down 3/4 cent), with May contracts finishing at $5.89, also down 3/4 cent on the day.

Supply Picture Adds Context to Price Action

Argentina’s wheat production outlook improved modestly, with Buenos Aires Grains Exchange revising estimates upward to 27.8 million metric tons—a 0.7 MMT increase from prior assessments. This supply boost reinforces existing concerns about global wheat abundance entering 2026.

Meanwhile, U.S. export activity remains a focal point, with traders awaiting sales data this morning. Consensus expectations suggest between 50,000 MT in net reductions and potential sales reaching 400,000 MT for the week ending December 18.

Holiday Schedule and Upcoming Catalysts

Market participants should note that Thursday brings a New Year’s Day closure, with trading reopening Friday at 8:30 am CST. The fresh start in 2026 will likely refocus attention on carry-through supply concerns and competing global wheat offerings, keeping downside pressure intact unless demand indicators brighten substantially.