Crash Warning! Will Ethereum Break Below $2600? Five Major Bombshell Negative Factors Hit the Market, Bulls Have No Way Out!

At the start of 2026, Ethereum faces a triple squeeze from technical, capital, and macro perspectives. Falling below $2600 is not a guess; it’s a high-probability inevitability! Five core negative factors simultaneously trigger a sell-off, each enough to make bulls drink a bitter cup. Don’t hold onto illusions during this correction—get your risk management ready now!
1. Five Reasons for the Crash, Each Deadly
1. Top Buyer Cuts Supply, Liquidity Drains Rapidly
The largest buyer, Tom Lee (Fundstrat), has slowed down capital flow and is no longer continuously net buying. The institutional buy support for ETH previously cannot be filled. On-chain data shows exchange net outflows turning into net inflows, large holders reducing holdings, and liquidity shrinking rapidly.
2. Maduro Incident Flares Up, US Stocks Drag Crypto Down
The US arrest of Maduro triggered panic selling in US stocks on Monday, putting risk assets under pressure. The correlation between the crypto market and US stocks hit a six-month high. As a high-volatility asset, Ethereum was among the first to be sold off, with funds shifting from risk assets to safe havens like gold.
3. Weekly Fibonacci Resistance, Technical Breakdown
The key resistance at $3167 (0.618 retracement level) on the weekly chart has failed to break through for three consecutive weeks, turning into strong resistance. After falling below $3000, support levels are only at $2800 and $2600, with no effective buy support, and the technical pattern has completely deteriorated.
4. Monthly Support Not Tested, Downside Space Opens
The $2600-$2800 zone on the monthly chart has not been effectively tested for a long time, forming a “vacuum zone” with no dense trading support. Once it breaks below $2800, a chain reaction of stop-losses is likely to occur, causing the price to quickly slide toward $2600 or even lower.
5. Retail Holders Not Cleared, Selling Pressure Huge
The $2800-$3200 range is packed with retail trapped positions, and major funds have not completed their chip clearing. Currently, market sentiment is “extremely fearful,” with retail stop-loss orders concentrated. Any downward move will trigger a mass sell-off, accelerating the decline.
2. Key Levels and Time Windows
• First Support: $2800 (retail stop-loss zone, break below accelerates)
• Strong Support: $2600 (bottom of the monthly vacuum zone, dense long liquidation area)
• Time Window: January 7-10 (US stock market open Monday + crypto contract settlement, maximum volatility)
• Risk Reminder: If $2600 is lost, the next target is $2300-$2400, with a potential drop of over 20%.
3. Three Survival Rules, Don’t Regret After the Crash
1. Immediately Reduce Leverage: Cut contract positions to below 3x; short positions can be arranged in the $3000-$3100 range with a stop-loss at $3167.
2. Gradually Reduce Spot Holdings: Reduce 30% at $2800-$2900, then another 50% near $2600, keep 20% for observation.
3. Cash Is King: Sell part of your spot holdings into stablecoins, wait for signs of stabilization at $2600, then consider building positions gradually.
4. Final Warning
This decline is not a short-term fluctuation but a concentrated response to tightening liquidity and rising macro risks. Ethereum has lost both fundamental and technical support. Breaking below $2600 is only a matter of time. Don’t rely on “bottom-fishing”—preserving your principal is the only correct choice right now!