Bitcoin's Dilemma: Supercycle or Severe Correction? What the Numbers Say

The cryptocurrency market faces a crossroads today. Bitcoin is trading near 91,310 USD, but recent movements raise more questions than certainties among investors. While some bet on a historic supercycle, technical and comparative data paint a much less optimistic scenario, challenging the bullish narrative that dominates part of the sector.

Technical signals: pullback after the peak

Bitcoin reached its all-time high on October 6, 2025, and since then, the trend has been systematically downward. In the last 30 days, it has lost approximately 24%, and over three months, the decline is around the same percentage. Despite showing moderate daily recoveries of 1–2%, selling pressure dominates on a weekly scale.

The four-year cycle analysis — studied in depth by analysts like Phil Konieczny — indicates a recurring pattern after each halving. The pattern should align with the highs of 2017, 2021, and 2025. However, the current lack of momentum contradicts the supercycle premise. Trading volumes in the spot market have collapsed 66% since the start of the year, while ETF interest remains depressed. Small bullish impulses are contrasted with massive capital outflows.

The problem of comparing with alternative markets

Here lies the real challenge. If we compare Bitcoin’s performance with traditional assets over the same period, an uncomfortable question emerges for the bulls: why expose oneself to the risk of cryptocurrencies if other asset classes generate higher returns?

The Nasdaq has gained about 18% so far this year. The S&P 500 is up 15%. Gold has revalued spectacularly by 64%, and silver has increased up to 120%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin falls around 8%. This demoralizing comparison not only affects the appetite of new participants but also weakens the narrative about target prices of one million dollars.

Altcoins suffer an even worse fate. Most projects in the top 100 and top 200 are in the red. Only stablecoins and gold tokens maintain relatively stable performance. Bitcoin remains the most resilient asset in the cycle, but its relative resilience is not enough compared to the returns of other markets.

Previous cycles vs. current reality: where does the momentum disappear?

Historical analysts recognize that the third year of the Bitcoin cycle has produced extraordinary increases. Previous cycles delivered returns of up to 5,000% or 1,300%. But the current dynamics completely contradict these precedents. The cryptocurrency market capitalization hovers around 3 trillion USD, an impressive number, but without the expected price push.

This lack of momentum creates genuine uncertainty: have we reached the bottom, or are we just beginning a larger correction? Phil Konieczny reflects this dilemma in his own investment strategy, taking profits in part of his capital around 105,000 USD and holding another portion long-term. This divided approach underscores the lack of clarity in the market.

Key technical levels and possible scenarios

The next critical resistance would be a rebound toward the 50-week moving average. If Bitcoin fails to break this level sustainably, the bearish hypothesis would strengthen. A fall below the 200 SMA has historically marked the start of completely bearish phases, which would generate additional pressure.

ETFs could play a paradoxical role: instead of boosting prices upward, they could reinforce cyclical downward movements if interest and selling pressure remain low.

Positive signals ignored by the market

Despite the bleak technical outlook, there are constructive developments worth noting:

• The Brazilian bank recommends allocating 3% in cryptocurrencies for portfolios
• Bank of America suggests 4% exposure
• MicroStrategy accumulated 223,798 BTC during 2025, showing institutional conviction
• Net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges are systematically decreasing, indicating less acute selling pressure

However, the market has ignored even these positive news, suggesting that buyers simply do not appear at these price levels.

Aggressive decline or consolidation before the rebound?

The uncomfortable truth is that no one has the definitive answer. The current market is in a zone of indecision where technical data compete against bullish arguments. Some investors are taking this period to educate themselves and develop strategies, recognizing that aggressive buying is not statistically justified at this stage.

The key question for 2026 will be whether these positive signals manage to reverse the negative momentum, or if they continue to be ignored while Bitcoin seeks to establish new support floors. For now, caution prevails over euphoria, and historical data favor this prudent stance.