Decoding Bitcoin's Potential: Mathematical Models for 2040 and Beyond

Bitcoin’s future value has long been a subject of speculation, but what if we stripped away the hype and examined it through the lens of macroeconomic data? Recently, Mark Moss, a seasoned Bitcoin investor and founder of a digital asset venture fund, presented a compelling framework grounded in historical government projections and monetary policy trends. Rather than relying on sentiment, his analysis builds on official Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts extending through 2054—data that reveals something critical about Bitcoin’s trajectory.

The Monetary Foundation: Understanding the Real Driver

The core thesis isn’t rocket science: as governments expand money supplies, the total value of store-of-value assets—encompassing gold, real estate, equities, and bonds—expands proportionally. The CBO data suggests this global pool will reach $1.6 trillion by 2030 and $3.5 trillion by 2040. This isn’t theoretical; it’s an extrapolation from existing spending patterns and debt obligations.

Bitcoin’s scarcity becomes the counterweight to this monetary expansion. With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin functions as a hedge against currency dilution. When you print more dollars chasing the same assets, those assets appreciate in nominal terms—not because they’re more valuable, but because the currency measuring them has weakened.

Bitcoin Price 2040: The Scaled Projection

Moss applies straightforward mathematics to this framework. If the store-of-value asset basket reaches $3.5 trillion by 2040, and Bitcoin captures even a modest 1.25% market share, the calculation yields approximately $14,000,000 per BTC.

To contextualize: gold currently represents about $21 trillion in global value. The projection suggests Bitcoin could achieve comparable standing within 15 years. This isn’t fantasy—it’s arithmetic applied to observable trends.

The 2030 Baseline: $1 Million Per Bitcoin

Working backward from the same model, by 2030 the store-of-value market reaches $1.6 trillion. Under the 1.25% penetration scenario, Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 per coin. While this figure appears breathtaking, consider that Bitcoin currently trades around $91,360—meaning the upside assumes roughly 10-11x appreciation over the next five years.

Historically, this seems plausible. Bitcoin has executed multiple cycles of similar magnitude. The difference now is institutional acceptance and reduced existential risk.

Risk Profile: Then Versus Now

A critical distinction separates today’s environment from 2015, when Mark Moss first accumulated Bitcoin at $300 per coin. Early risks—regulatory bans, competitive displacement, network obsolescence—have substantially diminished. Governments now hold Bitcoin reserves. Publicly traded corporations like MicroStrategy and MetaPlanet maintain it on their balance sheets. The risk-adjusted profile has fundamentally shifted.

This transformation matters more than the current price. An investor purchasing BTC today faces lower tail risks than someone who bought at $300, despite the higher nominal entry point. The network effects and institutional moats have solidified.

2050 and Beyond: The Long Game

By 2050, if monetary expansion continues at historical rates, the asset basket could climb into the tens of trillions. Moss didn’t pin a single number to 2050, but the mathematical trajectory suggests Bitcoin could trade in the tens-of-millions range per coin. More significantly, Bitcoin might cease being labeled “alternative money” entirely—it could become as foundational as the internet, unremarkable in its ubiquity.

The Corporate Adoption Catalyst

Over 170 public companies now hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset, following MicroStrategy’s pioneering approach. This shift signals a structural change: Bitcoin increasingly functions as collateral backing financial products, mirroring historical monetary metals. This trend amplifies the store-of-value narrative beyond retail speculation into institutional infrastructure.

Why the Math Matters More Than Sentiment

The conversation between Moss and industry observers highlighted a crucial point: Bitcoin’s appreciation reflects mechanical factors, not market psychology. More currency units chasing the same quantity of finite assets produces price appreciation. Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it the ultimate beneficiary of this dynamic.

Compare this to traditional assets. When you print dollars, stocks and real estate prices rise alongside the money supply. Bitcoin, lacking any inflation mechanism, benefits doubly—both from the absolute increase in monetary aggregates and from its growing recognition as a store of value.

The Path Forward

These projections—$1,000,000 by 2030, $14,000,000 by 2040—aren’t certainties. They’re models reflecting one plausible trajectory under specific assumptions about monetary policy and Bitcoin’s market penetration. Reality may diverge.

Yet the analysis reframes the investment question entirely. Rather than gambling on speculative enthusiasm, investors can evaluate Bitcoin through the framework of monetary economics. If governments continue debt-financed spending, if money supplies expand, and if Bitcoin captures even fractional market share from established stores of value, the mathematical case becomes difficult to dismiss.

The real question isn’t whether Bitcoin will reach these prices—it’s whether the monetary system underlying these projections will remain on its current trajectory. History suggests expansionary policy is the path of least political resistance. If that assumption holds, Bitcoin’s mathematical destiny appears substantially higher than today’s $91,360.