Bitcoin's 2026: A Period of Deep Squat Before the Next Rise?

As we settle into 2026, the cryptocurrency market faces a critical juncture. With Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $91.35K and a 24-hour movement of +1.36%, investors are divided: Is this a crash or simply a deep squat—a consolidation phase before another surge?

Understanding the Four-Year Halving Cycle

Bitcoin’s price movements follow a predictable pattern tied to its halving events. The April 2024 halving marked the trigger point, making 2025 the primary bull run year where retail enthusiasm peaks. Historical analysis reveals a consistent pattern: 2014, 2018, and 2022—each the second year following a halving—all experienced significant corrections and retracements.

This cyclical pattern suggests that 2026 will likely echo these predecessors. Rather than a “one-sided skyrocketing” rally, expect de-leveraging and volatile consolidation to dominate the landscape. The party atmosphere of 2025 gives way to the sobering reality of 2026, where high-leverage positions become particularly dangerous.

The Real Risk: Overconfidence

For those contemplating 100x leverage trading in 2026, market history offers a stern warning. This consolidation year has historically wiped out aggressive speculators who mistook temporary rallies for trend continuations. The challenge isn’t that 2026 is unplayable—it’s that the playbook must change entirely.

Finding Value in the Downturn

When market tides recede, opportunity emerges. The key lies in monitoring two critical indicators that separate winners from liquidated positions.

Temperature Check: The MVRV Indicator

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio serves as the market’s thermometer. The sharp peak visible in recent data marks 2025’s climactic enthusiasm phase. As we progress through 2026, watch for this indicator’s descent into the green safety zone. When MVRV remains elevated, aggressive entries resemble snatching knives mid-air—potentially catastrophic.

Tracking Smart Money: Long-Term Holder Supply

The divergence between bear and bull markets reveals itself through whale behavior. In uptrends, retail capital dominates; in downtrends, intelligent capital accumulates.

During 2026’s consolidation, focus on coins dormant for over a year. The signal emerges when prices fall while these aged addresses increase their holdings—evidence that experienced investors are quietly accumulating. This pattern, more reliable than retail sentiment, often precedes the next major advance.

The 2026 Thesis

The year ahead demands patience over aggression, analysis over emotions, and positioning for strength over chasing weakness. Bitcoin’s deep squat is neither a crash nor a collapse—it’s a regrouping phase where the market cleanses leverage and resets for the next cycle.

Those who understand this rhythm won’t panic sell or over-leverage. Instead, they’ll watch the thermometer, track the whales, and prepare for emergence.