Is Bitcoin gearing up for an explosion: Could the lag in 2025 be setting the stage for a major rebound in 2026?

The cryptocurrency market in 2025 continues to show a relatively weak performance compared to hedge assets like gold and stocks. However, market analysts point out that this lag may set the stage for a explosive reversal in cryptocurrencies in 2026. Signs are already emerging in on-chain data that capital flows are reversing and speculative money is about to return.

While traditional assets continue to be bought for hedge demand

Looking at price movements from November to the present, there is a clear shift in market participant preferences:

• Gold has risen 9%, continuing to be bought as a hedge against geopolitical risks and currency uncertainties
• S&P 500 is up 1%, maintaining a steady and resilient performance
• Bitcoin has fallen 20%, trading around $88,000

When examining the cumulative returns since the beginning of the year, the disparity has widened further. Gold has gained about 70%, silver 150%, while Bitcoin has declined roughly 6%. This gap reflects investor psychology in the macro environment of late 2025, where uncertainty has driven a preference for reliable hedges.

Why cryptocurrencies lag — why they will explode in 2026

Interestingly, gold’s strength is worth noting from a different perspective of “continuity.” Gold has been above its 200-day moving average for nearly 550 consecutive trading sessions, making it the second-longest streak since the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, Bitcoin sharply declined from $126,000 in early October to below $90,000 by year-end.

Luis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital, makes an intriguing observation: “Gold is about 26 weeks ahead of Bitcoin.” He notes that the recent correction in gold last summer resembles Bitcoin’s current stagnation pattern. Historically, Bitcoin tends to follow such phases, often recording larger gains afterward.

This suggests that the current weakness is not a structural problem but merely a timing issue, with capital still concentrated in gold.

A key turning point: whales “ease off” selling

Latest data from on-chain analysis firm Santiment indicates a shift in market sentiment.

Changes are beginning to appear in the behavior of large holders (so-called whales):

• The accumulation pace of whales slowed down in late 2025
• Small wallet purchase activity has started to pick up
• Long-term holders stopped selling for the first time in six months, stabilizing holdings from 14.8 million BTC to 14.3 million BTC

This pattern suggests a transition from the late cycle to the mid-cycle. Historically, during the onset of a bullish phase, large investors accelerate accumulation while retail investors’ capitulation peaks. The current pattern is believed to be in that preparatory stage.

Early signs of capital rotation are already emerging

Garrett Zinn, former CEO of BitForex, points out signals that capital is beginning to flow back into crypto. According to nonsensical analysis, active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5.5% in 24 hours, while transaction counts decreased. This pattern is related to accumulation rather than speculation.

“The short squeeze in gold is over,” Zinn said. “Capital is starting to flow back into crypto. The essence of capital doesn’t change. Sell high, buy low. The cycle is turning.”

Crypto investor CyrilXBT shares a similar view, describing the current situation as “a typical late-cycle positioning before a rebound.” The market often moves ahead of the story catching up, suggesting that institutional investors and whales may already be preparing for the next round.

2026: The scenario of explosive growth in crypto is becoming plausible

Looking at the latest predictions from the prediction market Polymarket:

• Bitcoin is the top performer in 2026: 40% probability
• Gold follows: 33%
• Stocks remain at 25%

If liquidity improves and macro risks ease, Bitcoin is likely to reassert its role as a traditional “inflation hedge and risk asset.” At that point, the current lag could turn into a leverage for rebound, accelerating whale-driven explosive movements.

The underperformance of the crypto market in 2025 stands out in contrast to the remarkable rise of gold and silver. However, this divergence is a crucial step in preparing for the resurgence of cryptocurrencies in 2026. As long-term holders support the market and signals of capital rotation strengthen, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are poised to seize the opportunity to fill the lost gap.

As Santiment points out, “The potential for crypto to catch up and explode remains very high.”