Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's interest rate decision is shaping up as a critical juncture for markets. Market pricing now reflects a 90% probability that rates will hold steady this month, with just a 10% chance of a 25 basis point cut materializing.

For crypto traders and investors, this signals a continuation of the current monetary stance. The broader implication? Tighter financial conditions persist, which historically tends to dampen risk appetite for digital assets. Markets are clearly pricing in a cautious Fed, unwilling to pivot toward easing just yet.

This probability distribution matters because it influences capital flows across all asset classes. Whether the Fed remains hawkish or edges toward accommodation could be the deciding factor for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins in the coming weeks. Watch the headline inflation data closely—it's become the key determinant of Powell's next move.